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docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

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# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station
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This case study – example name: `Fervo_Project_Cape-4` – is a 500 MWe EGS Project modeled
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The GEOPHIRES example `Fervo_Project_Cape-4` models a 500 MWe EGS Project based on
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on Fervo Cape Station with its April 2025-announced
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[upsizing from 400 MW to 500 MW](https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/),
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using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. Financial results are calculated
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[upsizing from 400 MW to 500 MW](https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/).
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Case study inputs are formulated using a combination of publicly available data, extrapolations, and estimates. Financial results are calculated
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using
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the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
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[Click here to go to the case study in the web interface](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4).
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Key case study results include LCOE = $79.4/MWh and CAPEX = $4650/kW.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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## Approach & Methodology
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Some technical parameters were inferred with high confidence from publicly available data, such as geothermal
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gradient ([74 ℃/km](https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf)) and well diameter.
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Other parameters were extrapolated or speculatively estimated based on plausibility and/or compatibility with known
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results, such as reservoir volume.
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results, such as number of doublets.
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The Inputs and Results tables below document key assumptions, inputs, and a comparison of results with reference
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values.
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 500 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. |
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| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. |
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| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start |
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| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. |
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| Total fracture surface area per production well | 2.787×10⁶ m² | 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft² per well) | Fercho et al, 2025. |

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