Skip to content

Commit f751bf1

Browse files
softwareengineerprogrammersoftwareengineerprogrammer
committed
Adjust stimulation cost to $4.6M/well (by removing 5% indirect cost) which aligns with drilling:stimulation cost ratio given in (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025). Update case study documentation test accordingly including parsing of drilling & stimulation per-well and total costs.
1 parent 9785819 commit f751bf1

File tree

4 files changed

+112
-87
lines changed

4 files changed

+112
-87
lines changed

‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md

Lines changed: 11 additions & 10 deletions
Original file line numberDiff line numberDiff line change
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated
88
using
99
the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
1010

11-
Key case study results include LCOE = $81.8/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW.
11+
Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW.
1212

1313
[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
1414
interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs.
4747
| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
4848
| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
4949
| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
50-
| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.83M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency and 5% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). |
50+
| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). |
5151
| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. |
5252
| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% |
5353
| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate |
@@ -81,14 +81,15 @@ in source code for the complete results.
8181

8282
### Economic Results
8383

84-
| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
85-
|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
86-
| LCOE | $81.8/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
87-
| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.69B | | |
88-
| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
89-
| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
90-
| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
91-
| After-tax IRR | 26.9% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
84+
| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
85+
|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
86+
| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
87+
| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | |
88+
| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
89+
| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $3.96M/well; $467.75M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
90+
| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $542.8M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) |
91+
| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
92+
| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
9293

9394
### Technical & Engineering Results
9495

0 commit comments

Comments
 (0)