From aeca13d729cf818a2381889144e3e2ca45d2b105 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 5 Aug 2025 10:31:36 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 01/10] Adjust Fervo_Project_Cape-4 stimulation cost to M per well. Remove 15% inflation during construction hedge since we'll consider the unexpectedly-higher stimulation costs to have eaten it. (Inflation during construction is now $58.2M as dicated by 1-year construction time + 2.3% inflation rate) --- docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md | 12 +- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out | 142 ++++++++++++------------ tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 7 +- 3 files changed, 81 insertions(+), 80 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index e5881ab6..0f27d95d 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated using the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). -Key case study results include LCOE = $75.5/MWh and CAPEX = $4900/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $79.1/MWh and CAPEX = $4800/kW. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. | Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | | Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | | Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Inflation Rate During Construction | 15% | Conservatively models the equivalent of a higher annual inflation rate (4.769%) over a 3-year period as a hedge against construction delays and short-term inflation volatility. | +| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | ### Technical & Engineering Parameters @@ -83,12 +83,12 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $75.5/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.64B | | | -| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4900/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| LCOE | $79.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.59B | | | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4800/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | | Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | | WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 31.5% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| After-tax IRR | 29.28% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index c05d23ba..3ec8d43c 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -4,17 +4,17 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- - GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.41 - Simulation Date: 2025-07-27 - Simulation Time: 11:26 - Calculation Time: 1.738 sec + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.48 + Simulation Date: 2025-08-05 + Simulation Time: 10:12 + Calculation Time: 1.733 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 7.55 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2639.39 MUSD + Electricity breakeven price: 7.91 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2588.68 MUSD Number of production wells: 59 Number of injection wells: 59 Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec @@ -28,14 +28,14 @@ Simulation Metadata Real Discount Rate: 12.00 % Nominal Discount Rate: 14.58 % WACC: 8.30 % - Accrued financing during construction: 15.00 % + Accrued financing during construction: 2.30 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 641.24 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 31.51 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.61 - Project MOIC: 5.77 - Project Payback Period: 1.95 yr + Project NPV: 539.48 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 29.28 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.52 + Project MOIC: 5.25 + Project Payback Period: 2.15 yr Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ Simulation Metadata Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 236.88 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 472.24 MUSD Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 344.27 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2639.39 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 58.20 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2588.68 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 70.46 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 126.95 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 94.00 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 150.49 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** @@ -224,43 +224,43 @@ PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,319,696,135 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,789,572,843 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,294,339,702 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,764,216,410 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 2,639,392,270 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 126,952,474 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 -EBITDA ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 88,683,580 87,480,404 86,209,849 84,868,143 83,451,302 81,955,118 80,375,147 78,706,698 76,944,816 75,084,269 73,119,531 71,044,767 68,853,817 66,540,174 64,096,966 61,516,939 58,792,431 55,915,350 52,877,152 49,668,815 46,280,812 42,703,080 38,924,995 34,935,338 30,722,260 26,273,249 21,575,094 16,613,842 11,374,760 5,842,289 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 182,724,931 186,426,650 190,861,418 195,043,962 198,993,360 202,155,947 203,087,139 199,310,625 202,133,754 217,364,476 222,929,121 228,008,174 232,937,185 237,468,810 240,597,294 240,257,648 234,252,419 253,881,327 262,051,556 268,503,357 274,779,118 280,904,625 286,277,092 289,316,276 287,312,106 292,694,985 311,833,886 320,504,276 328,795,689 1,656,778,080 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,893,414 164,572,016 168,982,372 173,139,137 177,061,312 180,195,151 181,095,986 177,287,414 180,076,690 195,271,665 200,798,560 205,837,748 210,724,663 215,211,834 218,293,374 217,904,156 211,846,579 231,420,207 239,532,060 245,922,217 252,132,881 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,639,392,270 +Total installed cost ($) -2,588,679,404 Debt closing costs ($) 0 Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: Total IBI income ($) 0 Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,639,392,270 +Purchase of property ($) -2,588,679,404 plus: Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -272,86 +272,86 @@ Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,639,392,270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,588,679,404 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,055,756,908 -Size of debt ($) 1,583,635,362 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,035,471,762 +Size of debt ($) 1,553,207,642 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,485,298 22,688,475 23,959,029 25,300,735 26,717,576 28,213,760 29,793,731 31,462,180 33,224,062 35,084,609 37,049,347 39,124,111 41,315,061 43,628,705 46,071,912 48,651,939 51,376,448 54,253,529 57,291,726 60,500,063 63,888,067 67,465,798 71,243,883 75,233,540 79,446,619 83,895,629 88,593,785 93,555,037 98,794,119 104,326,589 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,072,483 22,252,542 23,498,684 24,814,611 26,204,229 27,671,666 29,221,279 30,857,670 32,585,700 34,410,499 36,337,487 38,372,386 40,521,240 42,790,430 45,186,694 47,717,148 50,389,309 53,211,110 56,190,932 59,337,624 62,660,531 66,169,521 69,875,014 73,788,015 77,920,144 82,283,672 86,891,558 91,757,485 96,895,904 102,322,075 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,639,392,270 -21,485,298 -22,688,475 -23,959,029 -25,300,735 -26,717,576 -28,213,760 -29,793,731 -31,462,180 -33,224,062 -35,084,609 -37,049,347 -39,124,111 -41,315,061 -43,628,705 -46,071,912 -48,651,939 -51,376,448 -54,253,529 -57,291,726 -60,500,063 -63,888,067 -67,465,798 -71,243,883 -75,233,540 -79,446,619 -83,895,629 -88,593,785 -93,555,037 -98,794,119 -104,326,589 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,588,679,404 -21,072,483 -22,252,542 -23,498,684 -24,814,611 -26,204,229 -27,671,666 -29,221,279 -30,857,670 -32,585,700 -34,410,499 -36,337,487 -38,372,386 -40,521,240 -42,790,430 -45,186,694 -47,717,148 -50,389,309 -53,211,110 -56,190,932 -59,337,624 -62,660,531 -66,169,521 -69,875,014 -73,788,015 -77,920,144 -82,283,672 -86,891,558 -91,757,485 -96,895,904 -102,322,075 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 182,724,931 186,426,650 190,861,418 195,043,962 198,993,360 202,155,947 203,087,139 199,310,625 202,133,754 217,364,476 222,929,121 228,008,174 232,937,185 237,468,810 240,597,294 240,257,648 234,252,419 253,881,327 262,051,556 268,503,357 274,779,118 280,904,625 286,277,092 289,316,276 287,312,106 292,694,985 311,833,886 320,504,276 328,795,689 1,656,778,080 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,639,392,270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,639,392,270 -21,485,298 -22,688,475 -23,959,029 -25,300,735 -26,717,576 -28,213,760 -29,793,731 -31,462,180 -33,224,062 -35,084,609 -37,049,347 -39,124,111 -41,315,061 -43,628,705 -46,071,912 -48,651,939 -51,376,448 -54,253,529 -57,291,726 -60,500,063 -63,888,067 -67,465,798 -71,243,883 -75,233,540 -79,446,619 -83,895,629 -88,593,785 -93,555,037 -98,794,119 -104,326,589 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 161,239,633 163,738,175 166,902,389 169,743,227 172,275,784 173,942,186 173,293,409 167,848,445 168,909,692 182,279,867 185,879,774 188,884,063 191,622,124 193,840,105 194,525,382 191,605,709 182,875,972 199,627,798 204,759,829 208,003,294 210,891,051 213,438,827 215,033,209 214,082,736 207,865,487 208,799,356 223,240,101 226,949,239 230,001,570 1,552,451,491 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,893,414 164,572,016 168,982,372 173,139,137 177,061,312 180,195,151 181,095,986 177,287,414 180,076,690 195,271,665 200,798,560 205,837,748 210,724,663 215,211,834 218,293,374 217,904,156 211,846,579 231,420,207 239,532,060 245,922,217 252,132,881 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,588,679,404 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,588,679,404 -21,072,483 -22,252,542 -23,498,684 -24,814,611 -26,204,229 -27,671,666 -29,221,279 -30,857,670 -32,585,700 -34,410,499 -36,337,487 -38,372,386 -40,521,240 -42,790,430 -45,186,694 -47,717,148 -50,389,309 -53,211,110 -56,190,932 -59,337,624 -62,660,531 -66,169,521 -69,875,014 -73,788,015 -77,920,144 -82,283,672 -86,891,558 -91,757,485 -96,895,904 -102,322,075 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,055,756,908 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 161,239,633 163,738,175 166,902,389 169,743,227 172,275,784 173,942,186 173,293,409 167,848,445 168,909,692 182,279,867 185,879,774 188,884,063 191,622,124 193,840,105 194,525,382 191,605,709 182,875,972 199,627,798 204,759,829 208,003,294 210,891,051 213,438,827 215,033,209 214,082,736 207,865,487 208,799,356 223,240,101 226,949,239 230,001,570 1,552,451,491 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,055,756,908 161,239,633 163,738,175 166,902,389 169,743,227 172,275,784 173,942,186 173,293,409 167,848,445 168,909,692 182,279,867 185,879,774 188,884,063 191,622,124 193,840,105 194,525,382 191,605,709 182,875,972 199,627,798 204,759,829 208,003,294 210,891,051 213,438,827 215,033,209 214,082,736 207,865,487 208,799,356 223,240,101 226,949,239 230,001,570 1,552,451,491 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,035,471,762 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,055,756,908 161,239,633 163,738,175 166,902,389 169,743,227 172,275,784 173,942,186 173,293,409 167,848,445 168,909,692 182,279,867 185,879,774 188,884,063 191,622,124 193,840,105 194,525,382 191,605,709 182,875,972 199,627,798 204,759,829 208,003,294 210,891,051 213,438,827 215,033,209 214,082,736 207,865,487 208,799,356 223,240,101 226,949,239 230,001,570 1,552,451,491 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 791,817,681 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -24,732,371 -14,501,509 -15,367,619 -16,184,470 -16,955,788 -17,573,441 -17,755,303 -17,017,749 -17,569,106 -20,543,667 -21,630,442 -22,622,381 -23,585,017 -24,470,043 -25,081,036 -25,014,703 -23,841,882 -27,675,407 -29,271,053 -30,531,090 -42,710,554 -54,860,673 -55,909,916 -56,503,469 -56,112,054 -57,163,331 -60,901,158 -62,594,485 -64,213,798 -323,568,759 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,679,141 -10,654,228 -11,515,571 -12,327,387 -13,093,388 -13,705,427 -13,881,360 -13,137,546 -13,682,291 -16,649,870 -17,729,273 -18,713,426 -19,667,840 -20,544,185 -21,146,010 -21,069,996 -19,886,951 -23,709,680 -25,293,925 -26,541,923 -38,498,209 -50,424,438 -51,459,504 -52,038,085 -51,630,861 -52,665,443 -56,385,641 -58,060,351 -59,660,004 -314,042,094 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -8,864,649 -5,197,673 -5,508,107 -5,800,885 -6,077,343 -6,298,724 -6,363,908 -6,099,552 -6,297,171 -7,363,321 -7,752,846 -8,108,380 -8,453,411 -8,770,625 -8,989,619 -8,965,843 -8,545,477 -9,919,501 -10,491,417 -10,943,043 -15,308,442 -19,663,324 -20,039,396 -20,252,139 -20,111,847 -20,488,649 -21,828,372 -22,435,299 -23,015,698 -115,974,466 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,055,756,908 919,460,294 144,038,993 146,026,663 147,757,872 149,242,653 150,070,021 149,174,198 144,731,144 145,043,415 154,372,879 156,496,486 158,153,302 159,583,696 160,599,438 160,454,727 157,625,163 150,488,612 162,032,890 164,997,359 166,529,161 152,872,055 138,914,830 139,083,897 137,327,127 131,641,585 131,147,376 140,510,571 141,919,455 142,772,074 1,112,908,266 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 888,333,734 127,846,525 129,840,672 131,578,721 133,070,724 133,905,719 133,017,950 128,583,400 128,904,652 138,243,600 140,377,222 142,044,614 143,486,177 144,513,712 144,381,456 141,565,043 134,442,380 146,001,323 148,981,280 150,529,436 137,175,500 123,522,412 123,710,738 121,974,306 116,310,239 115,838,709 125,225,852 126,660,025 127,539,350 1,079,074,373 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -12.91 0.65 10.70 17.40 21.79 24.70 26.65 27.96 28.88 29.57 30.08 30.45 30.72 30.92 31.07 31.18 31.26 31.32 31.37 31.41 31.43 31.45 31.47 31.48 31.48 31.49 31.49 31.50 31.50 31.51 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,055,756,908 -253,267,474 -143,545,715 -46,460,926 39,277,598 114,860,694 181,194,056 238,743,100 287,474,933 330,099,021 369,693,483 404,726,244 435,625,953 462,838,612 486,740,535 507,582,932 525,453,035 540,343,610 554,336,820 566,773,302 577,728,422 586,505,730 593,466,995 599,550,064 604,792,204 609,178,033 612,991,540 616,557,531 619,701,075 622,461,191 641,239,205 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -14.21 -1.66 7.98 14.57 18.98 21.95 23.97 25.34 26.31 27.06 27.61 28.03 28.33 28.56 28.74 28.87 28.96 29.03 29.09 29.14 29.17 29.19 29.21 29.22 29.23 29.24 29.25 29.25 29.26 29.28 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,035,471,762 -260,149,064 -162,761,923 -76,438,275 -87,925 67,304,990 126,493,470 177,809,689 221,104,481 258,985,851 294,443,381 325,867,740 353,620,162 378,087,827 399,595,720 418,350,267 434,399,620 447,702,449 460,311,169 471,540,457 481,443,036 489,319,109 495,509,033 500,919,731 505,575,813 509,450,856 512,819,217 515,997,301 518,802,845 521,268,477 539,475,615 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,055,756,908 521,099,309 -256,820,535 -257,997,079 -259,106,708 -260,154,483 -260,993,517 -261,240,562 -260,238,653 -260,987,629 -265,028,340 -266,504,640 -267,852,113 -269,159,780 -270,362,020 -271,192,006 -271,101,898 -269,508,711 -274,716,260 -276,883,822 -278,595,485 -295,140,348 -311,645,349 -313,070,665 -313,876,960 -313,345,254 -314,773,332 -319,850,882 -322,151,136 -324,350,848 643,031,558 +Annual costs ($) -1,035,471,762 489,972,749 -273,013,002 -274,183,069 -275,285,859 -276,326,412 -277,157,819 -277,396,811 -276,386,397 -277,126,392 -281,157,619 -282,623,904 -283,960,800 -285,257,299 -286,447,745 -287,265,278 -287,162,019 -285,554,943 -290,747,827 -292,899,901 -294,595,210 -310,836,903 -327,037,767 -328,443,824 -329,229,782 -328,676,600 -330,081,999 -335,135,601 -337,410,566 -339,583,572 609,197,665 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,140,838,644 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,242,602,234 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.55 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.91 Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State taxable IBI income ($) 0 State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 88,683,580 87,480,404 86,209,849 84,868,143 83,451,302 81,955,118 80,375,147 78,706,698 76,944,816 75,084,269 73,119,531 71,044,767 68,853,817 66,540,174 64,096,966 61,516,939 58,792,431 55,915,350 52,877,152 49,668,815 46,280,812 42,703,080 38,924,995 34,935,338 30,722,260 26,273,249 21,575,094 16,613,842 11,374,760 5,842,289 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,087,086 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 56,087,086 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 55,009,437 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 55,009,437 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 126,637,845 74,252,478 78,687,247 82,869,791 86,819,189 89,981,775 90,912,968 87,136,453 89,959,582 105,190,305 110,754,950 115,834,002 120,763,014 125,294,638 128,423,122 128,083,477 122,078,248 141,707,156 149,877,384 156,329,186 218,692,032 280,904,625 286,277,092 289,316,276 287,312,106 292,694,985 311,833,886 320,504,276 328,795,689 1,656,778,080 +State taxable income ($) 0 105,883,977 54,553,141 58,963,497 63,120,262 67,042,437 70,176,276 71,077,111 67,268,539 70,057,816 85,252,790 90,779,685 95,818,873 100,705,788 105,192,959 108,274,499 107,885,282 101,827,704 121,401,332 129,513,185 135,903,343 197,123,444 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -8,864,649 -5,197,673 -5,508,107 -5,800,885 -6,077,343 -6,298,724 -6,363,908 -6,099,552 -6,297,171 -7,363,321 -7,752,846 -8,108,380 -8,453,411 -8,770,625 -8,989,619 -8,965,843 -8,545,477 -9,919,501 -10,491,417 -10,943,043 -15,308,442 -19,663,324 -20,039,396 -20,252,139 -20,111,847 -20,488,649 -21,828,372 -22,435,299 -23,015,698 -115,974,466 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -8,864,649 -5,197,673 -5,508,107 -5,800,885 -6,077,343 -6,298,724 -6,363,908 -6,099,552 -6,297,171 -7,363,321 -7,752,846 -8,108,380 -8,453,411 -8,770,625 -8,989,619 -8,965,843 -8,545,477 -9,919,501 -10,491,417 -10,943,043 -15,308,442 -19,663,324 -20,039,396 -20,252,139 -20,111,847 -20,488,649 -21,828,372 -22,435,299 -23,015,698 -115,974,466 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 88,683,580 87,480,404 86,209,849 84,868,143 83,451,302 81,955,118 80,375,147 78,706,698 76,944,816 75,084,269 73,119,531 71,044,767 68,853,817 66,540,174 64,096,966 61,516,939 58,792,431 55,915,350 52,877,152 49,668,815 46,280,812 42,703,080 38,924,995 34,935,338 30,722,260 26,273,249 21,575,094 16,613,842 11,374,760 5,842,289 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,087,086 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 112,174,171 56,087,086 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 55,009,437 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 55,009,437 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 117,773,196 69,054,805 73,179,140 77,068,905 80,741,845 83,683,051 84,549,060 81,036,901 83,662,411 97,826,983 103,002,103 107,725,622 112,309,603 116,524,014 119,433,504 119,117,633 113,532,771 131,787,655 139,385,967 145,386,143 203,383,590 261,241,301 266,237,696 269,064,137 267,200,258 272,206,336 290,005,514 298,068,976 305,779,991 1,540,803,615 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 98,472,099 50,734,421 54,836,053 58,701,844 62,349,466 65,263,937 66,101,714 62,559,742 65,153,769 79,285,095 84,425,107 89,111,552 93,656,383 97,829,452 100,695,284 100,333,312 94,699,765 112,903,239 120,447,262 126,390,109 183,324,803 240,116,371 245,045,256 247,800,406 245,861,245 250,787,824 268,503,050 276,477,861 284,095,259 1,495,438,541 Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -24,732,371 -14,501,509 -15,367,619 -16,184,470 -16,955,788 -17,573,441 -17,755,303 -17,017,749 -17,569,106 -20,543,667 -21,630,442 -22,622,381 -23,585,017 -24,470,043 -25,081,036 -25,014,703 -23,841,882 -27,675,407 -29,271,053 -30,531,090 -42,710,554 -54,860,673 -55,909,916 -56,503,469 -56,112,054 -57,163,331 -60,901,158 -62,594,485 -64,213,798 -323,568,759 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,679,141 -10,654,228 -11,515,571 -12,327,387 -13,093,388 -13,705,427 -13,881,360 -13,137,546 -13,682,291 -16,649,870 -17,729,273 -18,713,426 -19,667,840 -20,544,185 -21,146,010 -21,069,996 -19,886,951 -23,709,680 -25,293,925 -26,541,923 -38,498,209 -50,424,438 -51,459,504 -52,038,085 -51,630,861 -52,665,443 -56,385,641 -58,060,351 -59,660,004 -314,042,094 CASH INCENTIVES Federal IBI income ($) 0 @@ -377,30 +377,30 @@ Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 791,817,681 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 791,817,681 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,583,635,362 1,562,150,064 1,539,461,590 1,515,502,560 1,490,201,825 1,463,484,249 1,435,270,489 1,405,476,758 1,374,014,578 1,340,790,516 1,305,705,907 1,268,656,560 1,229,532,449 1,188,217,387 1,144,588,683 1,098,516,771 1,049,864,832 998,488,384 944,234,855 886,943,129 826,443,066 762,554,999 695,089,201 623,845,318 548,611,777 469,165,159 385,269,529 296,675,745 203,120,708 104,326,589 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 88,683,580 87,480,404 86,209,849 84,868,143 83,451,302 81,955,118 80,375,147 78,706,698 76,944,816 75,084,269 73,119,531 71,044,767 68,853,817 66,540,174 64,096,966 61,516,939 58,792,431 55,915,350 52,877,152 49,668,815 46,280,812 42,703,080 38,924,995 34,935,338 30,722,260 26,273,249 21,575,094 16,613,842 11,374,760 5,842,289 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,485,298 22,688,475 23,959,029 25,300,735 26,717,576 28,213,760 29,793,731 31,462,180 33,224,062 35,084,609 37,049,347 39,124,111 41,315,061 43,628,705 46,071,912 48,651,939 51,376,448 54,253,529 57,291,726 60,500,063 63,888,067 67,465,798 71,243,883 75,233,540 79,446,619 83,895,629 88,593,785 93,555,037 98,794,119 104,326,589 -Debt total payment ($) 0 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 +Debt balance ($) 1,553,207,642 1,532,135,160 1,509,882,618 1,486,383,933 1,461,569,323 1,435,365,094 1,407,693,428 1,378,472,150 1,347,614,479 1,315,028,779 1,280,618,280 1,244,280,793 1,205,908,406 1,165,387,166 1,122,596,737 1,077,410,043 1,029,692,895 979,303,586 926,092,476 869,901,544 810,563,919 747,903,388 681,733,867 611,858,852 538,070,837 460,150,693 377,867,021 290,975,464 199,217,979 102,322,075 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,072,483 22,252,542 23,498,684 24,814,611 26,204,229 27,671,666 29,221,279 30,857,670 32,585,700 34,410,499 36,337,487 38,372,386 40,521,240 42,790,430 45,186,694 47,717,148 50,389,309 53,211,110 56,190,932 59,337,624 62,660,531 66,169,521 69,875,014 73,788,015 77,920,144 82,283,672 86,891,558 91,757,485 96,895,904 102,322,075 +Debt total payment ($) 0 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 minus: Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 271,408,511 273,907,053 277,071,267 279,912,106 282,444,662 284,111,065 283,462,287 278,017,323 279,078,570 292,448,745 296,048,652 299,052,941 301,791,002 304,008,984 304,694,260 301,774,587 293,044,850 309,796,677 314,928,707 318,172,172 321,059,929 323,607,705 325,202,088 324,251,614 318,034,365 318,968,234 333,408,979 337,118,117 340,170,448 1,662,620,369 -Debt total payment ($) 0 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 110,168,878 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.46 2.49 2.51 2.54 2.56 2.58 2.57 2.52 2.53 2.65 2.69 2.71 2.74 2.76 2.77 2.74 2.66 2.81 2.86 2.89 2.91 2.94 2.95 2.94 2.89 2.90 3.03 3.06 3.09 15.09 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +Debt total payment ($) 0 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.29 2.32 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.41 2.36 2.36 2.49 2.52 2.55 2.58 2.60 2.60 2.58 2.49 2.65 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.78 2.79 2.78 2.73 2.73 2.87 2.90 2.93 14.93 RESERVES Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index 32768b61..bea1224e 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -17,10 +17,8 @@ Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billi Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .056 Inflation Rate, .023, -- US inflation as of April 2025 -Inflation Rate During Construction, 0.15, -- Models a higher annual inflation rate (4.769%) over the 3-year construction period as a hedge against short-term inflation volatility. Construction Years, 1, -- Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) - Combined Income Tax Rate, .28 Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3 Property Tax Rate, 0 @@ -31,7 +29,10 @@ Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 2.66, -- Estimated cost of ~$2M per well. Typical range for Nth-of-kind projects may be $0.5–2M. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.48, -- Estimated cost of $4M per well including 15% contingency. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.48, -- Estimated cost of $4M per well including 15% contingency. +Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4M per well + Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ # *** SURFACE & SUBSURFACE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS *** From e1f2f52f2aeab78454dba8791d6cc698461f8746 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 5 Aug 2025 10:49:07 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 02/10] use percent- instead of place-based comparison (https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/actions/runs/16756961455/job/47442021148?pr=97) --- tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 4544759d..58264543 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit'] = results_in_markdown[ 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost' ]['unit'].replace('/well', '') - self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, places=3) + self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.07) result_capex_USD_per_kW = ( _Q(example_result._get_result_field('Total CAPEX')).quantity().to('USD').magnitude From d56caddcf32cb89b140c0176f51a0fcaf4541344 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2025 12:21:05 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 03/10] Adjust to .01M/well - TODO to cite that this is based off publicly available shale stimulation costs. Update documentation on stimulation cost input. --- docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md | 4 +- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out | 128 +++++++++--------- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 6 +- .../test_fervo_project_cape_4.py | 2 +- 4 files changed, 70 insertions(+), 70 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 0f27d95d..9373bb19 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. | Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | | PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | | Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost Adjustment Factor | 2.66 | Estimated cost of ~$2M per well. Typical range for first-of-kind projects may be higher. | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.01M (including 15% contingency and 0% indirect costs) | Estimated cost of $4.01M per well. | | Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | | Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | | Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | @@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Project capital costs: $/kW | $4800/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | | Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | | WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 29.28% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| After-tax IRR | 29.25% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index 3ec8d43c..bb52de9f 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -5,16 +5,16 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.48 - Simulation Date: 2025-08-05 - Simulation Time: 10:12 - Calculation Time: 1.733 sec + Simulation Date: 2025-08-07 + Simulation Time: 12:04 + Calculation Time: 1.745 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW Electricity breakeven price: 7.91 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2588.68 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2590.07 MUSD Number of production wells: 59 Number of injection wells: 59 Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec @@ -31,8 +31,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Accrued financing during construction: 2.30 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 539.48 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 29.28 % + Project NPV: 538.40 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 29.25 % Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.52 Project MOIC: 5.25 Project Payback Period: 2.15 yr @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ Simulation Metadata Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 472.24 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 473.59 MUSD Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 58.20 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2588.68 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 58.23 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2590.07 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 94.00 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 150.49 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 94.13 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 150.62 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** @@ -224,43 +224,43 @@ PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,294,339,702 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,764,216,410 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,295,033,808 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,764,910,516 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 2,588,679,404 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 150,487,943 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 -EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,893,414 164,572,016 168,982,372 173,139,137 177,061,312 180,195,151 181,095,986 177,287,414 180,076,690 195,271,665 200,798,560 205,837,748 210,724,663 215,211,834 218,293,374 217,904,156 211,846,579 231,420,207 239,532,060 245,922,217 252,132,881 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,711,071 164,390,305 168,801,329 172,958,800 176,881,720 180,016,346 180,918,012 177,110,318 179,900,521 195,096,474 200,624,402 205,664,681 210,552,748 215,041,136 218,123,962 217,736,101 211,679,957 231,255,098 239,368,549 245,760,394 251,972,839 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,588,679,404 +Total installed cost ($) -2,590,067,615 Debt closing costs ($) 0 Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: Total IBI income ($) 0 Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,588,679,404 +Purchase of property ($) -2,590,067,615 plus: Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -272,47 +272,47 @@ Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,588,679,404 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,590,067,615 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,035,471,762 -Size of debt ($) 1,553,207,642 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,036,027,046 +Size of debt ($) 1,554,040,569 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,072,483 22,252,542 23,498,684 24,814,611 26,204,229 27,671,666 29,221,279 30,857,670 32,585,700 34,410,499 36,337,487 38,372,386 40,521,240 42,790,430 45,186,694 47,717,148 50,389,309 53,211,110 56,190,932 59,337,624 62,660,531 66,169,521 69,875,014 73,788,015 77,920,144 82,283,672 86,891,558 91,757,485 96,895,904 102,322,075 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,083,783 22,264,475 23,511,286 24,827,918 26,218,281 27,686,505 29,236,949 30,874,218 32,603,174 34,428,952 36,356,974 38,392,964 40,542,970 42,813,376 45,210,926 47,742,737 50,416,331 53,239,645 56,221,065 59,369,445 62,694,134 66,205,005 69,912,486 73,827,585 77,961,930 82,327,798 86,938,154 91,806,691 96,947,866 102,376,946 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,588,679,404 -21,072,483 -22,252,542 -23,498,684 -24,814,611 -26,204,229 -27,671,666 -29,221,279 -30,857,670 -32,585,700 -34,410,499 -36,337,487 -38,372,386 -40,521,240 -42,790,430 -45,186,694 -47,717,148 -50,389,309 -53,211,110 -56,190,932 -59,337,624 -62,660,531 -66,169,521 -69,875,014 -73,788,015 -77,920,144 -82,283,672 -86,891,558 -91,757,485 -96,895,904 -102,322,075 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,590,067,615 -21,083,783 -22,264,475 -23,511,286 -24,827,918 -26,218,281 -27,686,505 -29,236,949 -30,874,218 -32,603,174 -34,428,952 -36,356,974 -38,392,964 -40,542,970 -42,813,376 -45,210,926 -47,742,737 -50,416,331 -53,239,645 -56,221,065 -59,369,445 -62,694,134 -66,205,005 -69,912,486 -73,827,585 -77,961,930 -82,327,798 -86,938,154 -91,806,691 -96,947,866 -102,376,946 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,893,414 164,572,016 168,982,372 173,139,137 177,061,312 180,195,151 181,095,986 177,287,414 180,076,690 195,271,665 200,798,560 205,837,748 210,724,663 215,211,834 218,293,374 217,904,156 211,846,579 231,420,207 239,532,060 245,922,217 252,132,881 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,588,679,404 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,588,679,404 -21,072,483 -22,252,542 -23,498,684 -24,814,611 -26,204,229 -27,671,666 -29,221,279 -30,857,670 -32,585,700 -34,410,499 -36,337,487 -38,372,386 -40,521,240 -42,790,430 -45,186,694 -47,717,148 -50,389,309 -53,211,110 -56,190,932 -59,337,624 -62,660,531 -66,169,521 -69,875,014 -73,788,015 -77,920,144 -82,283,672 -86,891,558 -91,757,485 -96,895,904 -102,322,075 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,711,071 164,390,305 168,801,329 172,958,800 176,881,720 180,016,346 180,918,012 177,110,318 179,900,521 195,096,474 200,624,402 205,664,681 210,552,748 215,041,136 218,123,962 217,736,101 211,679,957 231,255,098 239,368,549 245,760,394 251,972,839 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,590,067,615 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,590,067,615 -21,083,783 -22,264,475 -23,511,286 -24,827,918 -26,218,281 -27,686,505 -29,236,949 -30,874,218 -32,603,174 -34,428,952 -36,356,974 -38,392,964 -40,542,970 -42,813,376 -45,210,926 -47,742,737 -50,416,331 -53,239,645 -56,221,065 -59,369,445 -62,694,134 -66,205,005 -69,912,486 -73,827,585 -77,961,930 -82,327,798 -86,938,154 -91,806,691 -96,947,866 -102,376,946 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,035,471,762 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,036,027,046 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 139,820,932 142,319,474 145,483,688 148,324,526 150,857,083 152,523,485 151,874,707 146,429,744 147,490,990 160,861,166 164,461,073 167,465,361 170,203,423 172,421,404 173,106,680 170,187,008 161,457,270 178,209,097 183,341,128 186,584,593 189,472,350 192,020,125 193,614,508 192,664,034 186,446,786 187,380,654 201,821,400 205,530,538 208,582,869 1,505,676,357 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,679,141 -10,654,228 -11,515,571 -12,327,387 -13,093,388 -13,705,427 -13,881,360 -13,137,546 -13,682,291 -16,649,870 -17,729,273 -18,713,426 -19,667,840 -20,544,185 -21,146,010 -21,069,996 -19,886,951 -23,709,680 -25,293,925 -26,541,923 -38,498,209 -50,424,438 -51,459,504 -52,038,085 -51,630,861 -52,665,443 -56,385,641 -58,060,351 -59,660,004 -314,042,094 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,637,768 -10,607,218 -11,468,691 -12,280,645 -13,046,791 -13,658,984 -13,835,079 -13,091,436 -13,636,363 -16,604,133 -17,683,737 -18,668,104 -19,622,743 -20,499,325 -21,101,401 -21,025,652 -19,842,887 -23,665,912 -25,250,469 -26,498,796 -38,461,191 -50,393,549 -51,429,003 -52,007,994 -51,601,203 -52,636,242 -56,356,922 -58,032,142 -59,632,334 -314,150,550 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,035,471,762 888,333,734 127,846,525 129,840,672 131,578,721 133,070,724 133,905,719 133,017,950 128,583,400 128,904,652 138,243,600 140,377,222 142,044,614 143,486,177 144,513,712 144,381,456 141,565,043 134,442,380 146,001,323 148,981,280 150,529,436 137,175,500 123,522,412 123,710,738 121,974,306 116,310,239 115,838,709 125,225,852 126,660,025 127,539,350 1,079,074,373 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 888,612,755 127,716,742 129,710,711 131,448,572 132,940,378 133,775,164 132,887,174 128,452,392 128,773,398 138,112,087 140,245,434 141,912,537 143,353,794 144,381,006 144,248,409 141,431,636 134,308,593 145,867,135 148,846,667 150,394,376 137,032,141 123,370,728 123,558,526 121,821,537 116,156,883 115,684,732 125,071,220 126,504,701 127,383,295 1,079,427,504 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -14.21 -1.66 7.98 14.57 18.98 21.95 23.97 25.34 26.31 27.06 27.61 28.03 28.33 28.56 28.74 28.87 28.96 29.03 29.09 29.14 29.17 29.19 29.21 29.22 29.23 29.24 29.25 29.25 29.26 29.28 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,035,471,762 -260,149,064 -162,761,923 -76,438,275 -87,925 67,304,990 126,493,470 177,809,689 221,104,481 258,985,851 294,443,381 325,867,740 353,620,162 378,087,827 399,595,720 418,350,267 434,399,620 447,702,449 460,311,169 471,540,457 481,443,036 489,319,109 495,509,033 500,919,731 505,575,813 509,450,856 512,819,217 515,997,301 518,802,845 521,268,477 539,475,615 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -14.23 -1.69 7.94 14.53 18.94 21.91 23.93 25.30 26.27 27.02 27.58 27.99 28.30 28.53 28.70 28.83 28.92 29.0 29.06 29.11 29.14 29.16 29.18 29.19 29.20 29.21 29.21 29.22 29.22 29.25 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,036,027,046 -260,460,824 -163,172,546 -76,935,301 -660,472 66,666,430 125,797,203 177,062,971 220,313,652 258,156,450 293,580,248 324,975,106 352,701,723 377,146,814 398,634,956 417,372,221 433,406,449 446,696,041 459,293,172 470,512,314 480,406,007 488,273,850 494,456,173 499,860,214 504,510,464 508,380,398 511,744,282 514,918,440 517,720,545 520,183,159 538,396,256 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,035,471,762 489,972,749 -273,013,002 -274,183,069 -275,285,859 -276,326,412 -277,157,819 -277,396,811 -276,386,397 -277,126,392 -281,157,619 -282,623,904 -283,960,800 -285,257,299 -286,447,745 -287,265,278 -287,162,019 -285,554,943 -290,747,827 -292,899,901 -294,595,210 -310,836,903 -327,037,767 -328,443,824 -329,229,782 -328,676,600 -330,081,999 -335,135,601 -337,410,566 -339,583,572 609,197,665 +Annual costs ($) -1,036,027,046 490,251,770 -273,142,786 -274,313,030 -275,416,007 -276,456,758 -277,288,374 -277,527,586 -276,517,405 -277,257,646 -281,289,132 -282,755,692 -284,092,878 -285,389,682 -286,580,451 -287,398,325 -287,295,425 -285,688,730 -290,882,015 -293,034,514 -294,730,270 -310,980,262 -327,189,451 -328,596,035 -329,382,550 -328,829,956 -330,235,976 -335,290,234 -337,565,891 -339,739,628 609,550,796 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,242,602,234 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,243,681,594 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.91 @@ -321,37 +321,37 @@ Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State taxable IBI income ($) 0 State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 55,009,437 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 55,009,437 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 55,038,937 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 55,038,937 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 105,883,977 54,553,141 58,963,497 63,120,262 67,042,437 70,176,276 71,077,111 67,268,539 70,057,816 85,252,790 90,779,685 95,818,873 100,705,788 105,192,959 108,274,499 107,885,282 101,827,704 121,401,332 129,513,185 135,903,343 197,123,444 258,189,647 263,489,522 266,452,049 264,366,930 269,664,326 288,712,957 297,288,023 305,478,773 1,607,998,431 +State taxable income ($) 0 105,672,134 54,312,431 58,723,456 62,880,926 66,803,846 69,938,472 70,840,138 67,032,444 69,822,647 85,018,600 90,546,528 95,586,808 100,474,875 104,963,263 108,046,088 107,658,227 101,602,083 121,177,224 129,290,675 135,682,520 196,933,902 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,411,878 -3,818,720 -4,127,445 -4,418,418 -4,692,971 -4,912,339 -4,975,398 -4,708,798 -4,904,047 -5,967,695 -6,354,578 -6,707,321 -7,049,405 -7,363,507 -7,579,215 -7,551,970 -7,127,939 -8,498,093 -9,065,923 -9,513,234 -13,798,641 -18,073,275 -18,444,267 -18,651,643 -18,505,685 -18,876,503 -20,209,907 -20,810,162 -21,383,514 -112,559,890 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 55,009,437 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 110,018,875 55,009,437 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 55,038,937 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 55,038,937 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 98,472,099 50,734,421 54,836,053 58,701,844 62,349,466 65,263,937 66,101,714 62,559,742 65,153,769 79,285,095 84,425,107 89,111,552 93,656,383 97,829,452 100,695,284 100,333,312 94,699,765 112,903,239 120,447,262 126,390,109 183,324,803 240,116,371 245,045,256 247,800,406 245,861,245 250,787,824 268,503,050 276,477,861 284,095,259 1,495,438,541 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 98,275,084 50,510,561 54,612,814 58,479,261 62,127,577 65,042,779 65,881,329 62,340,173 64,935,062 79,067,298 84,208,271 88,895,731 93,441,634 97,615,834 100,482,862 100,122,151 94,489,937 112,694,819 120,240,328 126,184,743 183,148,529 239,969,282 244,900,015 247,657,117 245,720,016 250,648,771 268,366,296 276,343,534 283,963,494 1,495,955,001 Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,679,141 -10,654,228 -11,515,571 -12,327,387 -13,093,388 -13,705,427 -13,881,360 -13,137,546 -13,682,291 -16,649,870 -17,729,273 -18,713,426 -19,667,840 -20,544,185 -21,146,010 -21,069,996 -19,886,951 -23,709,680 -25,293,925 -26,541,923 -38,498,209 -50,424,438 -51,459,504 -52,038,085 -51,630,861 -52,665,443 -56,385,641 -58,060,351 -59,660,004 -314,042,094 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,637,768 -10,607,218 -11,468,691 -12,280,645 -13,046,791 -13,658,984 -13,835,079 -13,091,436 -13,636,363 -16,604,133 -17,683,737 -18,668,104 -19,622,743 -20,499,325 -21,101,401 -21,025,652 -19,842,887 -23,665,912 -25,250,469 -26,498,796 -38,461,191 -50,393,549 -51,429,003 -52,007,994 -51,601,203 -52,636,242 -56,356,922 -58,032,142 -59,632,334 -314,150,550 CASH INCENTIVES Federal IBI income ($) 0 @@ -377,30 +377,30 @@ Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 776,603,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,553,207,642 1,532,135,160 1,509,882,618 1,486,383,933 1,461,569,323 1,435,365,094 1,407,693,428 1,378,472,150 1,347,614,479 1,315,028,779 1,280,618,280 1,244,280,793 1,205,908,406 1,165,387,166 1,122,596,737 1,077,410,043 1,029,692,895 979,303,586 926,092,476 869,901,544 810,563,919 747,903,388 681,733,867 611,858,852 538,070,837 460,150,693 377,867,021 290,975,464 199,217,979 102,322,075 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 86,979,628 85,799,569 84,553,427 83,237,500 81,847,882 80,380,445 78,830,832 77,194,440 75,466,411 73,641,612 71,714,624 69,679,724 67,530,871 65,261,681 62,865,417 60,334,962 57,662,802 54,841,001 51,861,179 48,714,486 45,391,579 41,882,590 38,177,097 34,264,096 30,131,967 25,768,439 21,160,553 16,294,626 11,156,207 5,730,036 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,072,483 22,252,542 23,498,684 24,814,611 26,204,229 27,671,666 29,221,279 30,857,670 32,585,700 34,410,499 36,337,487 38,372,386 40,521,240 42,790,430 45,186,694 47,717,148 50,389,309 53,211,110 56,190,932 59,337,624 62,660,531 66,169,521 69,875,014 73,788,015 77,920,144 82,283,672 86,891,558 91,757,485 96,895,904 102,322,075 -Debt total payment ($) 0 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 +Debt balance ($) 1,554,040,569 1,532,956,786 1,510,692,311 1,487,181,025 1,462,353,107 1,436,134,826 1,408,448,321 1,379,211,372 1,348,337,154 1,315,733,979 1,281,305,027 1,244,948,054 1,206,555,089 1,166,012,119 1,123,198,743 1,077,987,817 1,030,245,080 979,828,749 926,589,104 870,368,039 810,998,594 748,304,460 682,099,455 612,186,969 538,359,384 460,397,455 378,069,657 291,131,503 199,324,812 102,376,946 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,083,783 22,264,475 23,511,286 24,827,918 26,218,281 27,686,505 29,236,949 30,874,218 32,603,174 34,428,952 36,356,974 38,392,964 40,542,970 42,813,376 45,210,926 47,742,737 50,416,331 53,239,645 56,221,065 59,369,445 62,694,134 66,205,005 69,912,486 73,827,585 77,961,930 82,327,798 86,938,154 91,806,691 96,947,866 102,376,946 +Debt total payment ($) 0 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 +EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 minus: Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 247,873,042 250,371,585 253,535,799 256,376,637 258,909,194 260,575,596 259,926,818 254,481,854 255,543,101 268,913,276 272,513,184 275,517,472 278,255,533 280,473,515 281,158,791 278,239,119 269,509,381 286,261,208 291,393,239 294,636,704 297,524,460 300,072,236 301,666,619 300,716,145 294,498,897 295,432,765 309,873,511 313,582,649 316,634,980 1,613,728,468 -Debt total payment ($) 0 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 108,052,111 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.29 2.32 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.41 2.36 2.36 2.49 2.52 2.55 2.58 2.60 2.60 2.58 2.49 2.65 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.78 2.79 2.78 2.73 2.73 2.87 2.90 2.93 14.93 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +Debt total payment ($) 0 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.29 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.40 2.35 2.36 2.49 2.52 2.55 2.57 2.59 2.60 2.57 2.49 2.65 2.69 2.72 2.75 2.77 2.79 2.78 2.72 2.73 2.87 2.90 2.93 14.93 RESERVES Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index bea1224e..dd7605a1 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -29,9 +29,9 @@ Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.48, -- Estimated cost of $4M per well including 15% contingency. -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.48, -- Estimated cost of $4M per well including 15% contingency. -Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4M per well +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well including 15% contingency. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well including 15% contingency. +Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4.01M per well Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 58264543..4e34c0c0 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit'] = results_in_markdown[ 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost' ]['unit'].replace('/well', '') - self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.07) + self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.175) result_capex_USD_per_kW = ( _Q(example_result._get_result_field('Total CAPEX')).quantity().to('USD').magnitude From 4ab7d0f6f95ba58d0ff66491082ab787028897d2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2025 15:51:39 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 04/10] stim cost param comment wording --- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index dd7605a1..23e6388b 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well including 15% contingency. -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well including 15% contingency. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well when 15% contingency is applied. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well when 15% contingency is applied. Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4.01M per well Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ From 03908163d9f51614ac7a32896355fc1d9bebbf49 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2025 11:48:20 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 05/10] All-in stimulation cost of .6M/well based on per-stage costs calibrated to shale wells + ceramic proppant premium --- docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md | 55 ++++--- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out | 138 +++++++++--------- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 4 +- .../test_fervo_project_cape_4.py | 2 +- 4 files changed, 108 insertions(+), 91 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 9373bb19..32683ee5 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated using the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). -Key case study results include LCOE = $79.1/MWh and CAPEX = $4800/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. @@ -41,20 +41,20 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. ### Economic Parameters -| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | -|-----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. | -| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | -| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | -| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.01M (including 15% contingency and 0% indirect costs) | Estimated cost of $4.01M per well. | -| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | -| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | -| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | -| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | -| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | -| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. | +| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | +| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | +| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (including 15% contingency and 0% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | +| Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | +| Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | +| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | +| Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | +| Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | +| Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | +| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | ### Technical & Engineering Parameters @@ -83,12 +83,12 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $79.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.59B | | | -| Project capital costs: $/kW | $4800/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | | Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | | WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 29.25% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results @@ -115,6 +115,9 @@ tools. Akindipe, D. and Witter. E. (2025). "2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update". https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2025/Akindipe.pdf?t=1740084555 +Baytex Energy. (2024). Eagle Ford Presentation. +https://www.baytexenergy.com/content/uploads/2024/04/24-04-Baytex-Eagle-Ford-Presentation.pdf + Beckers, K., McCabe, K. (2019) GEOPHIRES v2.0: updated geothermal techno-economic simulation tool. Geotherm Energy 7,5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40517-019-0119-6 @@ -133,6 +136,10 @@ Fervo Energy. (2024, September 10). Fervo Energy’s Record-Breaking Production Enhanced Geothermal. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal +Gradl, C. (2018). SReview of Recent Unconventional Completion Innovations and their Applicability to EGS Wells. Stanford +Geothermal Workshop. +https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2018/Gradl.pdf + Horne, R., Genter, A., McClure, M. et al. (2025) Enhanced geothermal systems for clean firm energy generation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 148–160. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-024-00019-9 @@ -140,6 +147,10 @@ Jacobs, Trent. (2024, September 16). Fervo and FORGE Report Breakthrough Test R Enhanced Geothermal. https://jpt.spe.org/fervo-and-forge-report-breakthrough-test-results-signaling-more-progress-for-enhanced-geothermal +Ko, S., Ghassemi, A., & Uddenberg, M. (2023). Selection and Testing of Proppants for EGS. +Proceedings, 48th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California. +https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2023/Ko.pdf + Latimer, T. (2025, February 12). Catching up with enhanced geothermal (D. Roberts, Interviewer). https://www.volts.wtf/p/catching-up-with-enhanced-geothermal @@ -160,6 +171,12 @@ Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5V Norbeck J., Latimer T. (2023). Commercial-Scale Demonstration of a First-of-a-Kind Enhanced Geothermal System. https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B +Quantum Proppant Technologies. (2020). Well Completion Technology. World +Oil. https://quantumprot.com/uploads/images/2b8583e8ce8038681a19d5ad1314e204.pdf + +Shiozawa, S., & McClure, M. (2014). EGS Designs with Horizontal Wells, Multiple Stages, and Proppant. ResFrac. +https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Shiozawa.pdf + US DOE. (2021). Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: Waste Heat to Power. https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Waste_Heat_to_Power_Fact_Sheet.pdf diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index bb52de9f..b4a1a88e 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -5,16 +5,16 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.48 - Simulation Date: 2025-08-07 - Simulation Time: 12:04 - Calculation Time: 1.745 sec + Simulation Date: 2025-08-08 + Simulation Time: 11:35 + Calculation Time: 1.821 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 7.91 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2590.07 MUSD + Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD Number of production wells: 59 Number of injection wells: 59 Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec @@ -31,11 +31,11 @@ Simulation Metadata Accrued financing during construction: 2.30 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 538.40 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 29.25 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.52 - Project MOIC: 5.25 - Project Payback Period: 2.15 yr + Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 27.55 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 + Project MOIC: 4.84 + Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ Simulation Metadata Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 473.59 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 58.23 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2590.07 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 94.13 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 150.62 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** @@ -224,43 +224,43 @@ PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,295,033,808 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,764,910,516 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 2,590,067,615 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 150,623,643 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 -EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,711,071 164,390,305 168,801,329 172,958,800 176,881,720 180,016,346 180,918,012 177,110,318 179,900,521 195,096,474 200,624,402 205,664,681 210,552,748 215,041,136 218,123,962 217,736,101 211,679,957 231,255,098 239,368,549 245,760,394 251,972,839 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,590,067,615 +Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 Debt closing costs ($) 0 Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: Total IBI income ($) 0 Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,590,067,615 +Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 plus: Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -272,86 +272,86 @@ Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,590,067,615 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,036,027,046 -Size of debt ($) 1,554,040,569 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,083,783 22,264,475 23,511,286 24,827,918 26,218,281 27,686,505 29,236,949 30,874,218 32,603,174 34,428,952 36,356,974 38,392,964 40,542,970 42,813,376 45,210,926 47,742,737 50,416,331 53,239,645 56,221,065 59,369,445 62,694,134 66,205,005 69,912,486 73,827,585 77,961,930 82,327,798 86,938,154 91,806,691 96,947,866 102,376,946 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,590,067,615 -21,083,783 -22,264,475 -23,511,286 -24,827,918 -26,218,281 -27,686,505 -29,236,949 -30,874,218 -32,603,174 -34,428,952 -36,356,974 -38,392,964 -40,542,970 -42,813,376 -45,210,926 -47,742,737 -50,416,331 -53,239,645 -56,221,065 -59,369,445 -62,694,134 -66,205,005 -69,912,486 -73,827,585 -77,961,930 -82,327,798 -86,938,154 -91,806,691 -96,947,866 -102,376,946 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 160,711,071 164,390,305 168,801,329 172,958,800 176,881,720 180,016,346 180,918,012 177,110,318 179,900,521 195,096,474 200,624,402 205,664,681 210,552,748 215,041,136 218,123,962 217,736,101 211,679,957 231,255,098 239,368,549 245,760,394 251,972,839 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,590,067,615 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,590,067,615 -21,083,783 -22,264,475 -23,511,286 -24,827,918 -26,218,281 -27,686,505 -29,236,949 -30,874,218 -32,603,174 -34,428,952 -36,356,974 -38,392,964 -40,542,970 -42,813,376 -45,210,926 -47,742,737 -50,416,331 -53,239,645 -56,221,065 -59,369,445 -62,694,134 -66,205,005 -69,912,486 -73,827,585 -77,961,930 -82,327,798 -86,938,154 -91,806,691 -96,947,866 -102,376,946 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,036,027,046 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 139,627,287 142,125,829 145,290,044 148,130,882 150,663,439 152,329,841 151,681,063 146,236,099 147,297,346 160,667,521 164,267,428 167,271,717 170,009,778 172,227,760 172,913,036 169,993,364 161,263,626 178,015,453 183,147,484 186,390,949 189,278,705 191,826,481 193,420,864 192,470,390 186,253,142 187,187,010 201,627,756 205,336,894 208,389,225 1,506,176,818 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,637,768 -10,607,218 -11,468,691 -12,280,645 -13,046,791 -13,658,984 -13,835,079 -13,091,436 -13,636,363 -16,604,133 -17,683,737 -18,668,104 -19,622,743 -20,499,325 -21,101,401 -21,025,652 -19,842,887 -23,665,912 -25,250,469 -26,498,796 -38,461,191 -50,393,549 -51,429,003 -52,007,994 -51,601,203 -52,636,242 -56,356,922 -58,032,142 -59,632,334 -314,150,550 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,036,027,046 888,612,755 127,716,742 129,710,711 131,448,572 132,940,378 133,775,164 132,887,174 128,452,392 128,773,398 138,112,087 140,245,434 141,912,537 143,353,794 144,381,006 144,248,409 141,431,636 134,308,593 145,867,135 148,846,667 150,394,376 137,032,141 123,370,728 123,558,526 121,821,537 116,156,883 115,684,732 125,071,220 126,504,701 127,383,295 1,079,427,504 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -14.23 -1.69 7.94 14.53 18.94 21.91 23.93 25.30 26.27 27.02 27.58 27.99 28.30 28.53 28.70 28.83 28.92 29.0 29.06 29.11 29.14 29.16 29.18 29.19 29.20 29.21 29.21 29.22 29.22 29.25 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,036,027,046 -260,460,824 -163,172,546 -76,935,301 -660,472 66,666,430 125,797,203 177,062,971 220,313,652 258,156,450 293,580,248 324,975,106 352,701,723 377,146,814 398,634,956 417,372,221 433,406,449 446,696,041 459,293,172 470,512,314 480,406,007 488,273,850 494,456,173 499,860,214 504,510,464 508,380,398 511,744,282 514,918,440 517,720,545 520,183,159 538,396,256 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,559 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,888 90,287,586 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,997 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,871 382,754,753 395,369,208 407,375,323 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,289 445,824,811 450,177,651 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,957 483,348,930 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,036,027,046 490,251,770 -273,142,786 -274,313,030 -275,416,007 -276,456,758 -277,288,374 -277,527,586 -276,517,405 -277,257,646 -281,289,132 -282,755,692 -284,092,878 -285,389,682 -286,580,451 -287,398,325 -287,295,425 -285,688,730 -290,882,015 -293,034,514 -294,730,270 -310,980,262 -327,189,451 -328,596,035 -329,382,550 -328,829,956 -330,235,976 -335,290,234 -337,565,891 -339,739,628 609,550,796 +Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,243,681,594 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.91 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State taxable IBI income ($) 0 State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 55,038,937 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 55,038,937 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 105,672,134 54,312,431 58,723,456 62,880,926 66,803,846 69,938,472 70,840,138 67,032,444 69,822,647 85,018,600 90,546,528 95,586,808 100,474,875 104,963,263 108,046,088 107,658,227 101,602,083 121,177,224 129,290,675 135,682,520 196,933,902 258,031,486 263,333,349 266,297,975 264,215,071 269,514,808 288,565,910 297,143,585 305,337,090 1,608,553,764 +State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -7,397,049 -3,801,870 -4,110,642 -4,401,665 -4,676,269 -4,895,693 -4,958,810 -4,692,271 -4,887,585 -5,951,302 -6,338,257 -6,691,077 -7,033,241 -7,347,428 -7,563,226 -7,536,076 -7,112,146 -8,482,406 -9,050,347 -9,497,776 -13,785,373 -18,062,204 -18,433,334 -18,640,858 -18,495,055 -18,866,037 -20,199,614 -20,800,051 -21,373,596 -112,598,763 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 55,038,937 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 110,077,874 55,038,937 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 98,275,084 50,510,561 54,612,814 58,479,261 62,127,577 65,042,779 65,881,329 62,340,173 64,935,062 79,067,298 84,208,271 88,895,731 93,441,634 97,615,834 100,482,862 100,122,151 94,489,937 112,694,819 120,240,328 126,184,743 183,148,529 239,969,282 244,900,015 247,657,117 245,720,016 250,648,771 268,366,296 276,343,534 283,963,494 1,495,955,001 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -20,637,768 -10,607,218 -11,468,691 -12,280,645 -13,046,791 -13,658,984 -13,835,079 -13,091,436 -13,636,363 -16,604,133 -17,683,737 -18,668,104 -19,622,743 -20,499,325 -21,101,401 -21,025,652 -19,842,887 -23,665,912 -25,250,469 -26,498,796 -38,461,191 -50,393,549 -51,429,003 -52,007,994 -51,601,203 -52,636,242 -56,356,922 -58,032,142 -59,632,334 -314,150,550 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 CASH INCENTIVES Federal IBI income ($) 0 @@ -377,30 +377,30 @@ Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 777,020,285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,554,040,569 1,532,956,786 1,510,692,311 1,487,181,025 1,462,353,107 1,436,134,826 1,408,448,321 1,379,211,372 1,348,337,154 1,315,733,979 1,281,305,027 1,244,948,054 1,206,555,089 1,166,012,119 1,123,198,743 1,077,987,817 1,030,245,080 979,828,749 926,589,104 870,368,039 810,998,594 748,304,460 682,099,455 612,186,969 538,359,384 460,397,455 378,069,657 291,131,503 199,324,812 102,376,946 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 87,026,272 85,845,580 84,598,769 83,282,137 81,891,774 80,423,550 78,873,106 77,235,837 75,506,881 73,681,103 71,753,082 69,717,091 67,567,085 65,296,679 62,899,130 60,367,318 57,693,724 54,870,410 51,888,990 48,740,610 45,415,921 41,905,050 38,197,569 34,282,470 30,148,126 25,782,257 21,171,901 16,303,364 11,162,189 5,733,109 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,083,783 22,264,475 23,511,286 24,827,918 26,218,281 27,686,505 29,236,949 30,874,218 32,603,174 34,428,952 36,356,974 38,392,964 40,542,970 42,813,376 45,210,926 47,742,737 50,416,331 53,239,645 56,221,065 59,369,445 62,694,134 66,205,005 69,912,486 73,827,585 77,961,930 82,327,798 86,938,154 91,806,691 96,947,866 102,376,946 -Debt total payment ($) 0 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 +Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 minus: Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 247,737,342 250,235,885 253,400,099 256,240,937 258,773,494 260,439,896 259,791,118 254,346,154 255,407,401 268,777,576 272,377,484 275,381,772 278,119,833 280,337,815 281,023,091 278,103,419 269,373,681 286,125,508 291,257,539 294,501,004 297,388,760 299,936,536 301,530,919 300,580,445 294,363,197 295,297,065 309,737,811 313,446,949 316,499,280 1,614,286,873 -Debt total payment ($) 0 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 108,110,055 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.29 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.40 2.35 2.36 2.49 2.52 2.55 2.57 2.59 2.60 2.57 2.49 2.65 2.69 2.72 2.75 2.77 2.79 2.78 2.72 2.73 2.87 2.90 2.93 14.93 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 RESERVES Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index 23e6388b..dc72bca9 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well when 15% contingency is applied. -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 3.49, -- Estimated cost of $4.01M per well when 15% contingency is applied. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4.01M per well Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 4e34c0c0..74a7235b 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit'] = results_in_markdown[ 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost' ]['unit'].replace('/well', '') - self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.175) + self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.185) result_capex_USD_per_kW = ( _Q(example_result._get_result_field('Total CAPEX')).quantity().to('USD').magnitude From 77da8c0571ee3ba299e9ad29dba273f67d78b5c5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2025 12:23:47 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 06/10] don't override default 5% stimulation indirect cost --- docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md | 10 +- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out | 136 ++++++++++++------------ tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 1 - 3 files changed, 73 insertions(+), 74 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 32683ee5..6f89d259 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated using the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). -Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $81.8/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. @@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. | Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | | PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | | Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (including 15% contingency and 0% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.83M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency and 5% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | | Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | | Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | | Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | @@ -83,12 +83,12 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | +| LCOE | $81.8/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.69B | | | | Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | | Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | | WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| After-tax IRR | 26.9% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index b4a1a88e..9ebe47ac 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -6,15 +6,15 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.48 Simulation Date: 2025-08-08 - Simulation Time: 11:35 - Calculation Time: 1.821 sec + Simulation Time: 12:16 + Calculation Time: 1.911 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + Electricity breakeven price: 8.18 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2688.63 MUSD Number of production wells: 59 Number of injection wells: 59 Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec @@ -31,11 +31,11 @@ Simulation Metadata Accrued financing during construction: 2.30 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 27.55 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 - Project MOIC: 4.84 - Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr + Project NPV: 461.76 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 26.90 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.43 + Project MOIC: 4.68 + Project Payback Period: 2.40 yr Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ Simulation Metadata Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 569.94 MUSD Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 60.45 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2688.63 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 103.77 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 160.26 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** @@ -224,43 +224,43 @@ PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,344,315,298 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,814,192,006 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 147,764,654 151,488,819 155,947,290 160,154,864 164,130,693 167,321,191 168,281,858 164,536,469 167,392,466 182,657,897 188,259,195 193,376,952 198,346,836 202,921,623 206,095,685 205,804,170 199,849,768 219,532,348 227,759,254 234,270,908 240,609,872 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 +Total installed cost ($) -2,688,630,596 Debt closing costs ($) 0 Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: Total IBI income ($) 0 Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 +Purchase of property ($) -2,688,630,596 plus: Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -272,86 +272,86 @@ Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,688,630,596 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,075,452,238 +Size of debt ($) 1,613,178,358 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,886,110 23,111,732 24,405,989 25,772,725 27,215,997 28,740,093 30,349,538 32,049,112 33,843,863 35,739,119 37,740,510 39,853,978 42,085,801 44,442,606 46,931,392 49,559,550 52,334,884 55,265,638 58,360,514 61,628,702 65,079,910 68,724,385 72,572,950 76,637,035 80,928,709 85,460,717 90,246,517 95,300,322 100,637,140 106,272,820 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,688,630,596 -21,886,110 -23,111,732 -24,405,989 -25,772,725 -27,215,997 -28,740,093 -30,349,538 -32,049,112 -33,843,863 -35,739,119 -37,740,510 -39,853,978 -42,085,801 -44,442,606 -46,931,392 -49,559,550 -52,334,884 -55,265,638 -58,360,514 -61,628,702 -65,079,910 -68,724,385 -72,572,950 -76,637,035 -80,928,709 -85,460,717 -90,246,517 -95,300,322 -100,637,140 -106,272,820 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 147,764,654 151,488,819 155,947,290 160,154,864 164,130,693 167,321,191 168,281,858 164,536,469 167,392,466 182,657,897 188,259,195 193,376,952 198,346,836 202,921,623 206,095,685 205,804,170 199,849,768 219,532,348 227,759,254 234,270,908 240,609,872 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,688,630,596 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,688,630,596 -21,886,110 -23,111,732 -24,405,989 -25,772,725 -27,215,997 -28,740,093 -30,349,538 -32,049,112 -33,843,863 -35,739,119 -37,740,510 -39,853,978 -42,085,801 -44,442,606 -46,931,392 -49,559,550 -52,334,884 -55,265,638 -58,360,514 -61,628,702 -65,079,910 -68,724,385 -72,572,950 -76,637,035 -80,928,709 -85,460,717 -90,246,517 -95,300,322 -100,637,140 -106,272,820 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,075,452,238 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -17,700,284 -7,269,460 -8,140,200 -8,961,939 -9,738,418 -10,361,522 -10,549,141 -9,817,666 -10,375,442 -13,356,781 -14,450,715 -15,450,213 -16,420,831 -17,314,287 -17,934,181 -17,877,248 -16,714,353 -20,558,361 -22,165,076 -23,436,802 -35,832,955 -48,200,455 -49,263,462 -49,871,551 -49,495,486 -50,562,972 -54,317,916 -56,029,319 -57,667,720 -321,850,960 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 908,423,251 118,502,085 120,483,467 122,208,036 123,685,805 124,505,768 123,602,125 119,150,813 119,454,364 128,774,620 130,888,503 132,535,051 133,954,602 134,958,893 134,802,090 131,959,756 124,809,722 136,339,760 139,289,193 140,805,116 126,853,654 112,601,135 112,751,503 110,974,989 105,268,595 104,752,367 114,092,310 115,476,639 116,303,329 1,104,499,839 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,559 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,888 90,287,586 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,997 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,871 382,754,753 395,369,208 407,375,323 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,289 445,824,811 450,177,651 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,957 483,348,930 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.53 -4.05 5.10 11.54 15.95 18.98 21.07 22.50 23.53 24.34 24.95 25.41 25.76 26.02 26.22 26.37 26.48 26.58 26.65 26.71 26.75 26.78 26.80 26.81 26.83 26.84 26.85 26.85 26.86 26.90 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,075,452,238 -282,595,749 -192,326,739 -112,224,162 -41,311,280 21,328,695 76,362,246 124,045,990 164,164,773 199,268,976 232,297,846 261,598,093 287,492,554 310,334,868 330,420,723 347,930,950 362,891,343 375,241,039 387,015,383 397,514,141 406,777,006 414,060,440 419,703,080 424,634,457 428,870,666 432,377,841 435,423,833 438,319,360 440,877,190 443,125,604 461,761,744 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 +Annual costs ($) -1,075,452,238 510,062,267 -282,357,442 -283,540,274 -284,656,544 -285,711,331 -286,557,770 -286,812,635 -285,818,984 -286,576,680 -290,626,599 -292,112,623 -293,470,364 -294,788,874 -296,002,565 -296,844,644 -296,767,305 -295,187,602 -300,409,390 -302,591,989 -304,319,530 -321,158,749 -337,959,044 -339,403,058 -340,229,099 -339,718,244 -341,168,341 -346,269,144 -348,593,952 -350,819,594 634,623,131 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,320,316,106 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.18 Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State taxable IBI income ($) 0 State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 57,133,400 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 57,133,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +State taxable income ($) 0 90,631,254 37,222,018 41,680,489 45,888,063 49,863,892 53,054,391 54,015,058 50,269,668 53,125,665 68,391,097 73,992,395 79,110,152 84,080,036 88,654,822 91,828,885 91,537,370 85,582,967 105,265,547 113,492,454 120,004,108 183,476,472 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 57,133,400 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 57,133,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 84,287,066 34,616,477 38,762,855 42,675,899 46,373,420 49,340,583 50,234,004 46,750,792 49,406,869 63,603,720 68,812,927 73,572,441 78,194,433 82,448,985 85,400,863 85,129,754 79,592,159 97,896,959 105,547,982 111,603,820 170,633,119 229,525,974 234,587,916 237,483,575 235,692,790 240,776,055 258,656,743 266,806,280 274,608,188 1,532,623,619 Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -17,700,284 -7,269,460 -8,140,200 -8,961,939 -9,738,418 -10,361,522 -10,549,141 -9,817,666 -10,375,442 -13,356,781 -14,450,715 -15,450,213 -16,420,831 -17,314,287 -17,934,181 -17,877,248 -16,714,353 -20,558,361 -22,165,076 -23,436,802 -35,832,955 -48,200,455 -49,263,462 -49,871,551 -49,495,486 -50,562,972 -54,317,916 -56,029,319 -57,667,720 -321,850,960 CASH INCENTIVES Federal IBI income ($) 0 @@ -377,30 +377,30 @@ Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +Debt balance ($) 1,613,178,358 1,591,292,248 1,568,180,516 1,543,774,526 1,518,001,802 1,490,785,805 1,462,045,712 1,431,696,174 1,399,647,061 1,365,803,199 1,330,064,080 1,292,323,570 1,252,469,592 1,210,383,791 1,165,941,185 1,119,009,794 1,069,450,244 1,017,115,360 961,849,722 903,489,208 841,860,506 776,780,596 708,056,212 635,483,262 558,846,226 477,917,517 392,456,800 302,210,283 206,909,960 106,272,820 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,886,110 23,111,732 24,405,989 25,772,725 27,215,997 28,740,093 30,349,538 32,049,112 33,843,863 35,739,119 37,740,510 39,853,978 42,085,801 44,442,606 46,931,392 49,559,550 52,334,884 55,265,638 58,360,514 61,628,702 65,079,910 68,724,385 72,572,950 76,637,035 80,928,709 85,460,717 90,246,517 95,300,322 100,637,140 106,272,820 +Debt total payment ($) 0 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 minus: Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +Debt total payment ($) 0 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.12 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.18 2.19 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.42 2.39 2.31 2.46 2.51 2.54 2.56 2.59 2.60 2.59 2.54 2.55 2.67 2.71 2.73 14.74 RESERVES Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index dc72bca9..39c5ce72 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -31,7 +31,6 @@ Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust corr Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. -Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Assume no additional indirect cost beyond $4.01M per well Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ From 978581995c017baf20882d5d63f65c4841dd940d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2025 12:34:56 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 07/10] test stimulation costs match expected in documentation and result --- tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py | 12 ++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 12 insertions(+) diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 74a7235b..2ff9c3a0 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -75,6 +75,12 @@ def test_case_study_documentation(self): self.assertEqual(3.96, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['value']) self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit']) + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.83 + self.assertEqual( + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well, inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well']['value'] + ) + self.assertEqual('MUSD', inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well']['unit']) + class _Q(HasQuantity): def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): self.value = vu['value'] @@ -143,6 +149,12 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Volume']['value'], ) + expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD = expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well * num_doublets * 2 + self.assertEqual( + expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD, + example_result.result['CAPITAL COSTS (M$)']['Stimulation costs']['value'], + ) + def parse_markdown_results_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: """ Parses result values from markdown into a structured dictionary with values and units. From f751bf13620985335247297bf0dafdd4e968efff Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2025 11:10:27 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 08/10] Adjust stimulation cost to $4.6M/well (by removing 5% indirect cost) which aligns with drilling:stimulation cost ratio given in (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025). Update case study documentation test accordingly including parsing of drilling & stimulation per-well and total costs. --- docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md | 21 +-- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out | 138 +++++++++--------- tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt | 1 + .../test_fervo_project_cape_4.py | 39 ++++- 4 files changed, 112 insertions(+), 87 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 6f89d259..53a27b6f 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated using the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). -Key case study results include LCOE = $81.8/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. @@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. | Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 | | PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. | | Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.8 to align with Fervo claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well | Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.83M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency and 5% indirect costs) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | +| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | | Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | | Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | | Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | @@ -81,14 +81,15 @@ in source code for the complete results. ### Economic Results -| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | -|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $81.8/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.69B | | | -| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Well Drilling and Completion Cost | $3.96M/well (including 5% indirect costs) | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | -| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 26.9% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | +|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| +| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $3.96M/well; $467.75M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | +| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $542.8M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | +| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | +| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index 9ebe47ac..f37410a8 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -5,16 +5,16 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- GEOPHIRES Version: 3.9.48 - Simulation Date: 2025-08-08 - Simulation Time: 12:16 - Calculation Time: 1.911 sec + Simulation Date: 2025-08-11 + Simulation Time: 10:37 + Calculation Time: 1.730 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 8.18 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2688.63 MUSD + Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD Number of production wells: 59 Number of injection wells: 59 Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec @@ -31,11 +31,11 @@ Simulation Metadata Accrued financing during construction: 2.30 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 461.76 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 26.90 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.43 - Project MOIC: 4.68 - Project Payback Period: 2.40 yr + Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 27.55 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 + Project MOIC: 4.84 + Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ Simulation Metadata Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 569.94 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 60.45 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2688.63 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ Simulation Metadata Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 103.77 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 160.26 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** @@ -224,43 +224,43 @@ PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,344,315,298 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,814,192,006 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 +Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 2,688,630,596 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 160,258,343 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 -EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 147,764,654 151,488,819 155,947,290 160,154,864 164,130,693 167,321,191 168,281,858 164,536,469 167,392,466 182,657,897 188,259,195 193,376,952 198,346,836 202,921,623 206,095,685 205,804,170 199,849,768 219,532,348 227,759,254 234,270,908 240,609,872 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,688,630,596 +Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 Debt closing costs ($) 0 Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: Total IBI income ($) 0 Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,688,630,596 +Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 plus: Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -272,86 +272,86 @@ Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,688,630,596 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,075,452,238 -Size of debt ($) 1,613,178,358 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,886,110 23,111,732 24,405,989 25,772,725 27,215,997 28,740,093 30,349,538 32,049,112 33,843,863 35,739,119 37,740,510 39,853,978 42,085,801 44,442,606 46,931,392 49,559,550 52,334,884 55,265,638 58,360,514 61,628,702 65,079,910 68,724,385 72,572,950 76,637,035 80,928,709 85,460,717 90,246,517 95,300,322 100,637,140 106,272,820 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,688,630,596 -21,886,110 -23,111,732 -24,405,989 -25,772,725 -27,215,997 -28,740,093 -30,349,538 -32,049,112 -33,843,863 -35,739,119 -37,740,510 -39,853,978 -42,085,801 -44,442,606 -46,931,392 -49,559,550 -52,334,884 -55,265,638 -58,360,514 -61,628,702 -65,079,910 -68,724,385 -72,572,950 -76,637,035 -80,928,709 -85,460,717 -90,246,517 -95,300,322 -100,637,140 -106,272,820 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 147,764,654 151,488,819 155,947,290 160,154,864 164,130,693 167,321,191 168,281,858 164,536,469 167,392,466 182,657,897 188,259,195 193,376,952 198,346,836 202,921,623 206,095,685 205,804,170 199,849,768 219,532,348 227,759,254 234,270,908 240,609,872 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,688,630,596 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,688,630,596 -21,886,110 -23,111,732 -24,405,989 -25,772,725 -27,215,997 -28,740,093 -30,349,538 -32,049,112 -33,843,863 -35,739,119 -37,740,510 -39,853,978 -42,085,801 -44,442,606 -46,931,392 -49,559,550 -52,334,884 -55,265,638 -58,360,514 -61,628,702 -65,079,910 -68,724,385 -72,572,950 -76,637,035 -80,928,709 -85,460,717 -90,246,517 -95,300,322 -100,637,140 -106,272,820 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,075,452,238 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 125,878,544 128,377,087 131,541,301 134,382,139 136,914,696 138,581,098 137,932,320 132,487,356 133,548,603 146,918,778 150,518,685 153,522,974 156,261,035 158,479,017 159,164,293 156,244,621 147,514,883 164,266,710 169,398,741 172,642,206 175,529,962 178,077,738 179,672,121 178,721,647 172,504,399 173,438,267 187,879,013 191,588,151 194,640,482 1,541,709,566 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -17,700,284 -7,269,460 -8,140,200 -8,961,939 -9,738,418 -10,361,522 -10,549,141 -9,817,666 -10,375,442 -13,356,781 -14,450,715 -15,450,213 -16,420,831 -17,314,287 -17,934,181 -17,877,248 -16,714,353 -20,558,361 -22,165,076 -23,436,802 -35,832,955 -48,200,455 -49,263,462 -49,871,551 -49,495,486 -50,562,972 -54,317,916 -56,029,319 -57,667,720 -321,850,960 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,075,452,238 908,423,251 118,502,085 120,483,467 122,208,036 123,685,805 124,505,768 123,602,125 119,150,813 119,454,364 128,774,620 130,888,503 132,535,051 133,954,602 134,958,893 134,802,090 131,959,756 124,809,722 136,339,760 139,289,193 140,805,116 126,853,654 112,601,135 112,751,503 110,974,989 105,268,595 104,752,367 114,092,310 115,476,639 116,303,329 1,104,499,839 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.53 -4.05 5.10 11.54 15.95 18.98 21.07 22.50 23.53 24.34 24.95 25.41 25.76 26.02 26.22 26.37 26.48 26.58 26.65 26.71 26.75 26.78 26.80 26.81 26.83 26.84 26.85 26.85 26.86 26.90 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,075,452,238 -282,595,749 -192,326,739 -112,224,162 -41,311,280 21,328,695 76,362,246 124,045,990 164,164,773 199,268,976 232,297,846 261,598,093 287,492,554 310,334,868 330,420,723 347,930,950 362,891,343 375,241,039 387,015,383 397,514,141 406,777,006 414,060,440 419,703,080 424,634,457 428,870,666 432,377,841 435,423,833 438,319,360 440,877,190 443,125,604 461,761,744 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,559 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,888 90,287,586 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,997 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,871 382,754,753 395,369,208 407,375,323 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,289 445,824,811 450,177,651 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,957 483,348,930 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,075,452,238 510,062,267 -282,357,442 -283,540,274 -284,656,544 -285,711,331 -286,557,770 -286,812,635 -285,818,984 -286,576,680 -290,626,599 -292,112,623 -293,470,364 -294,788,874 -296,002,565 -296,844,644 -296,767,305 -295,187,602 -300,409,390 -302,591,989 -304,319,530 -321,158,749 -337,959,044 -339,403,058 -340,229,099 -339,718,244 -341,168,341 -346,269,144 -348,593,952 -350,819,594 634,623,131 +Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,320,316,106 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.18 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State taxable IBI income ($) 0 State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 57,133,400 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 57,133,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 90,631,254 37,222,018 41,680,489 45,888,063 49,863,892 53,054,391 54,015,058 50,269,668 53,125,665 68,391,097 73,992,395 79,110,152 84,080,036 88,654,822 91,828,885 91,537,370 85,582,967 105,265,547 113,492,454 120,004,108 183,476,472 246,802,123 252,245,071 255,358,682 253,433,108 258,898,984 278,125,530 286,888,473 295,277,622 1,647,982,386 +State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,344,188 -2,605,541 -2,917,634 -3,212,164 -3,490,472 -3,713,807 -3,781,054 -3,518,877 -3,718,797 -4,787,377 -5,179,468 -5,537,711 -5,885,603 -6,205,838 -6,428,022 -6,407,616 -5,990,808 -7,368,588 -7,944,472 -8,400,288 -12,843,353 -17,276,149 -17,657,155 -17,875,108 -17,740,318 -18,122,929 -19,468,787 -20,082,193 -20,669,434 -115,358,767 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 57,133,400 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 114,266,800 57,133,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 84,287,066 34,616,477 38,762,855 42,675,899 46,373,420 49,340,583 50,234,004 46,750,792 49,406,869 63,603,720 68,812,927 73,572,441 78,194,433 82,448,985 85,400,863 85,129,754 79,592,159 97,896,959 105,547,982 111,603,820 170,633,119 229,525,974 234,587,916 237,483,575 235,692,790 240,776,055 258,656,743 266,806,280 274,608,188 1,532,623,619 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -17,700,284 -7,269,460 -8,140,200 -8,961,939 -9,738,418 -10,361,522 -10,549,141 -9,817,666 -10,375,442 -13,356,781 -14,450,715 -15,450,213 -16,420,831 -17,314,287 -17,934,181 -17,877,248 -16,714,353 -20,558,361 -22,165,076 -23,436,802 -35,832,955 -48,200,455 -49,263,462 -49,871,551 -49,495,486 -50,562,972 -54,317,916 -56,029,319 -57,667,720 -321,850,960 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 CASH INCENTIVES Federal IBI income ($) 0 @@ -377,30 +377,30 @@ Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 806,589,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,613,178,358 1,591,292,248 1,568,180,516 1,543,774,526 1,518,001,802 1,490,785,805 1,462,045,712 1,431,696,174 1,399,647,061 1,365,803,199 1,330,064,080 1,292,323,570 1,252,469,592 1,210,383,791 1,165,941,185 1,119,009,794 1,069,450,244 1,017,115,360 961,849,722 903,489,208 841,860,506 776,780,596 708,056,212 635,483,262 558,846,226 477,917,517 392,456,800 302,210,283 206,909,960 106,272,820 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 90,337,988 89,112,366 87,818,109 86,451,373 85,008,101 83,484,005 81,874,560 80,174,986 78,380,235 76,484,979 74,483,588 72,370,120 70,138,297 67,781,492 65,292,706 62,664,548 59,889,214 56,958,460 53,863,584 50,595,396 47,144,188 43,499,713 39,651,148 35,587,063 31,295,389 26,763,381 21,977,581 16,923,776 11,586,958 5,951,278 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,886,110 23,111,732 24,405,989 25,772,725 27,215,997 28,740,093 30,349,538 32,049,112 33,843,863 35,739,119 37,740,510 39,853,978 42,085,801 44,442,606 46,931,392 49,559,550 52,334,884 55,265,638 58,360,514 61,628,702 65,079,910 68,724,385 72,572,950 76,637,035 80,928,709 85,460,717 90,246,517 95,300,322 100,637,140 106,272,820 -Debt total payment ($) 0 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 +Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 +EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 minus: Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 238,102,642 240,601,185 243,765,399 246,606,237 249,138,794 250,805,196 250,156,418 244,711,454 245,772,701 259,142,876 262,742,784 265,747,072 268,485,133 270,703,115 271,388,391 268,468,719 259,738,981 276,490,808 281,622,839 284,866,304 287,754,060 290,301,836 291,896,219 290,945,745 284,728,497 285,662,365 300,103,111 303,812,249 306,864,580 1,653,933,664 -Debt total payment ($) 0 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 112,224,098 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.12 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.18 2.19 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.41 2.42 2.39 2.31 2.46 2.51 2.54 2.56 2.59 2.60 2.59 2.54 2.55 2.67 2.71 2.73 14.74 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 RESERVES Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index 39c5ce72..d2c1fe95 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -31,6 +31,7 @@ Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust corr Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. +Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Baseline stimulation cost includes indirect costs Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 2ff9c3a0..57d9e888 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -72,10 +72,13 @@ def test_case_study_documentation(self): inputs_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_inputs_structured(documentation_file_content) results_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_results_structured(documentation_file_content) - self.assertEqual(3.96, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['value']) - self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit']) + self.assertEqual(3.96, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['value']) + self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['unit']) + + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.6 + self.assertEqual(expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well, results_in_markdown['Stimulation Costs']['value']) + self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Stimulation Costs']['unit']) - expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.83 self.assertEqual( expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well, inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well']['value'] ) @@ -102,10 +105,16 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): field_mapping = { 'LCOE': 'Electricity breakeven price', 'Project capital costs: Total CAPEX': 'Total CAPEX', - 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost': 'Drilling and completion costs per well', + 'Well Drilling and Completion Costs': 'Drilling and completion costs per well', + 'Well Drilling and Completion Costs total': 'Drilling and completion costs', + 'Stimulation Costs total': 'Stimulation costs', } - ignore_keys = ['Project capital costs: $/kW', 'Total fracture surface area per production well'] + ignore_keys = [ + 'Project capital costs: $/kW', # See https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/issues/391 + 'Total fracture surface area per production well', + 'Stimulation Costs', # remapped to 'Stimulation Costs total' + ] example_result = GeophiresXResult(self._get_test_file_path('../examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out')) example_result_values = {} @@ -122,8 +131,8 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): if ignore_key in results_in_markdown: del results_in_markdown[ignore_key] - results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Cost']['unit'] = results_in_markdown[ - 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost' + results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['unit'] = results_in_markdown[ + 'Well Drilling and Completion Costs' ]['unit'].replace('/well', '') self.assertDictAlmostEqual(example_result_values, results_in_markdown, percent=0.185) @@ -204,10 +213,24 @@ def parse_markdown_results_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: 'Project capital costs: Total CAPEX', 'Project capital costs: $/kW', 'WACC', - 'Well Drilling and Completion Cost', + 'Well Drilling and Completion Costs', + 'Stimulation Costs', ]: structured_results[key_] = self._parse_value_unit(value_) + for result_with_total_key in ['Well Drilling and Completion Costs', 'Stimulation Costs']: + entry = structured_results[result_with_total_key] + + unit_str = entry['unit'] + entry['unit'] = unit_str.split(';')[0] + + # This probably could/should be done with some adaptation of self._parse_value_unit, but one-off parsing + # here is fine for now... + structured_results[f'{result_with_total_key} total'] = { + 'value': float(unit_str.split('; ')[1].replace(' total', '').replace('$', '').replace('M', '')), + 'unit': entry['unit'].split('/')[0], + } + return structured_results def parse_markdown_inputs_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: From 91c365687a2cfc363243341d64afaf7d70719ebe Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2025 11:23:05 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 09/10] ignore local requirements file --- .gitignore | 1 + 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+) diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 9c696f0e..0a1fef10 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ Geothermal_district_heating_system_with_peaking_boilers.png # TODO may want to add this to source regenerate-schemas.sh +requirements_2025-08-11.txt # C extensions *.so From 8475ab3df6993039b118f1462f7d55348eed0599 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: softwareengineerprogrammer <4056124+softwareengineerprogrammer@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2025 12:06:24 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 10/10] pin coolprop==6.8.0 --- setup.py | 4 +++- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/setup.py b/setup.py index 9d4710c5..1a2953ed 100755 --- a/setup.py +++ b/setup.py @@ -77,7 +77,9 @@ def read(*names, **kwargs): 'h5py', 'scipy', 'iapws', - 'coolprop; python_version > "3.8"', + # coolprop 7.0.0 fails on macOS + Python > 3.8, see + # https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/actions/runs/16888333182/job/47841807973 + 'coolprop == 6.8.0; python_version > "3.8"', # coolprop > 6.7.0 fails on Python 3.8, see # https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/actions/runs/14599234458/job/40952924048?pr=69#step:5:302 'coolprop==6.7.0; python_version == "3.8"',