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knitr/hmm-example/hmm-example.Rmd

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---
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title: "HMM Example"
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author: "Ben Bales, Charles Margossian"
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author: "Ben Bales"
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date: 9-26-2020
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output:
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html_document: default
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pdf_document: default
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HMMs model a process where a system probabilistically switches between $K$
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states over a sequence of $N$ points in time. It is assumed that the exact
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state of the system is unknown and must be measured at each state.
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state of the system is unknown and must be inferred at each state.
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HMMs are characterized in terms of the transition matrix $\Gamma_{ij}$ (each
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element being the probability of transitioning from state $i$ to state $j$
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between measurements), the types of measurements made on the system (the
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system may emit continuous or discrete measurements), and the initial state
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of the system.
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of the system. Currently the HMM interface in Stan only supports a constant
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transition matrix. Future versions will support a transition matrix for each state.
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Any realization of an HMM is a sequence of $N$ integers in the range $[1, K]$,
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however, because of the structure of the HMM, it is not necessary to sample
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the hidden states to do inference on the transition probabilities, the
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parameters of the measurement model, or the estimates of the initial state.
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Estimates of the distribution of states at each measurement time can be
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computed separately.
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Any realization of an HMM's hidden state is a sequence of $N$ integers in the
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range $[1, K]$, however, because of the structure of the HMM, it is not
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necessary to sample the hidden states to do inference on the transition
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probabilities, the parameters of the measurement model, or the estimates
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of the initial state. Posterior draws from the hidden states can be computed
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separately.
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A more complete mathematical definition of the HMM model and function interface
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is given in the [Hidden Markov Models](https://mc-stan.org/docs/2_24/functions-reference/hidden-markov-models.html)
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```
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The `hmm_marginal` function takes the transition matrix and initial state
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directly. In this case the transition matrix needs constructed from `t1`,
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directly. In this case the transition matrix needs to be constructed from `t1`,
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`t2`, and `t3` but that is relatively easy to build.
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The measurement model, in contrast, is not passed directly to the HMM function.

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