11---
22title : " HMM Example"
3- author : " Ben Bales, Charles Margossian"
3+ author : " Ben Bales"
4+ date : 9-26-2020
45output :
56 html_document : default
67 pdf_document : default
@@ -20,20 +21,21 @@ in Stan. This document is intended to provide an example use of this interface.
2021
2122HMMs model a process where a system probabilistically switches between $K$
2223states over a sequence of $N$ points in time. It is assumed that the exact
23- state of the system is unknown and must be measured at each state.
24+ state of the system is unknown and must be inferred at each state.
2425
2526HMMs are characterized in terms of the transition matrix $\Gamma_ {ij}$ (each
2627element being the probability of transitioning from state $i$ to state $j$
2728between measurements), the types of measurements made on the system (the
2829system may emit continuous or discrete measurements), and the initial state
29- of the system.
30+ of the system. Currently the HMM interface in Stan only supports a constant
31+ transition matrix. Future versions will support a transition matrix for each state.
3032
31- Any realization of an HMM is a sequence of $N$ integers in the range $ [ 1, K ] $,
32- however, because of the structure of the HMM, it is not necessary to sample
33- the hidden states to do inference on the transition probabilities, the
34- parameters of the measurement model, or the estimates of the initial state.
35- Estimates of the distribution of states at each measurement time can be
36- computed separately.
33+ Any realization of an HMM's hidden state is a sequence of $N$ integers in the
34+ range $ [ 1, K ] $, however, because of the structure of the HMM, it is not
35+ necessary to sample the hidden states to do inference on the transition
36+ probabilities, the parameters of the measurement model, or the estimates
37+ of the initial state. Posterior draws from the hidden states can be computed
38+ separately.
3739
3840A more complete mathematical definition of the HMM model and function interface
3941is given in the [ Hidden Markov Models] ( https://mc-stan.org/docs/2_24/functions-reference/hidden-markov-models.html )
@@ -143,7 +145,7 @@ parameters {
143145```
144146
145147The ` hmm_marginal ` function takes the transition matrix and initial state
146- directly. In this case the transition matrix needs constructed from ` t1 ` ,
148+ directly. In this case the transition matrix needs to be constructed from ` t1 ` ,
147149` t2 ` , and ` t3 ` but that is relatively easy to build.
148150
149151The measurement model, in contrast, is not passed directly to the HMM function.
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