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Description
Description
Implement a timeline estimation module based on Mosca's inequality and configurable quantum threat scenarios. This module answers the critical question: "When do we need to start migrating?" by comparing migration timelines against projected quantum computing capabilities.
Tasks
- Implement Mosca's inequality:
migration_time + data_shelf_life > quantum_threat_timeline-> system is at risk- Input: estimated migration time per component
- Input: data shelf life (how long data must remain confidential)
- Input: quantum threat timeline (when a CRQC becomes available)
- Support configurable quantum threat timeline scenarios:
- Optimistic: CRQC available sooner (e.g., 2030-2033)
- Moderate: CRQC available mid-range (e.g., 2033-2038)
- Pessimistic: CRQC available later (e.g., 2038-2045)
- Custom scenario support
- Factor in organization's migration capacity and complexity:
- Number of systems to migrate
- Dependency chains between systems
- Available security engineering resources
- Testing and validation requirements
- Generate urgency classification per component:
- Immediate: already at risk or within 2 years
- Near-term: at risk within 2-5 years
- Long-term: at risk within 5-10 years
- Low priority: not at risk within 10 years
- Generate visual timeline showing when each component becomes at-risk under each scenario
References
- Michele Mosca, "Cybersecurity in an Era with Quantum Computers" (2018)
- Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline reports
- Depends on: assessment engine (feat: implement quantum vulnerability assessment engine #4)
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