How would one model COVID19 propagation?

[truedichotomy]

Idea for a COVID19 model (an idea conceived at the beginning of COVID19 requiring data that's hard to get):

1. 2D model, divide box into 50 states.
2. statistical distance travel distribution for each individual (further away visits are less likely)
3. population in family units
4. commercial and public space distributions (based on real density)
5. Monte Carlo simulation based on distance PDF for individuals.
6. disease infection model based on density and time of exposure
7. can simulate quarantine by removing locations from distribution pool.
8. can simulate self isolation by changing distance travel distributions
9. assume that no transmission take place during transit
10. 100k public schools in U.S., 4770 walmarts, 1868 targets, 38300 supermarkets, 380k churches, 12k starbucks, 31k coffee shops, 660k restaurants

5x10 boxes representing states