[Simulation] Neonate Availability Forecast & Repro Dynamics #3
Description
[Simulation] Neonate Availability Forecast & Repro Dynamics
Summary
Build a forecasting pipeline to predict daily neonate availability and identify peak days; quantify time-to-reproduction (adolescent → first eggs) and brood dynamics to inform the forecast and operations planning.
Scope
- Forecast: daily neonates (baseline linear/Poisson → iterate if needed)
- Peak detection (flag dates likely to exceed target threshold)
- Time-to-reproduction: distribution (mean/median/IQR, ECDF)
- Brood dynamics: brood size distribution; broods per mother over time
- Link to constraints: ensure training data respects QC (“quality specimen”)
Deliverables
- Model report (features used, backtest window, MAE/MAPE or Poisson deviance)
- Plots: forecast vs. actuals; time-to-reproduction; brood size distribution