AIEG_Forecasting/baseline_lagged.txt at main · BricePetit/AIEG_Forecasting · GitHub

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Pour la prédiction du prochain point (prochaine 15 minutes) voici les baselines (via naive forecast donc datashift de 1) :
Production:
site 1 :
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  12652.116869428419
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.19964823081293387
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  2.773306630540075e+16 %
MSE (lower is better):  990131069.1954131
RMSE (lower is better):  31466.34820241162
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.49653356932981213
R2 (higher is better):  0.9165955914966065
site 2:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  2826.2677801929603
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.19923598965566305
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  3935991162722687.0 %
MSE (lower is better):  42658794.93940434
RMSE (lower is better):  6531.370066027826
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.46042487128504983
R2 (higher is better):  0.9146880153131905
site 3:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  2494.198565737052
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.19578862840534522
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  5246902896546599.0 %
MSE (lower is better):  35460125.71027888
RMSE (lower is better):  5954.840527695002
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.467440754439468
R2 (higher is better):  0.9243719159223128
site 4:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  4053.158780939552
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.19834421127769172
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  1.2274501762648666e+16 %
MSE (lower is better):  95696921.07537745
RMSE (lower is better):  9782.480313058517
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.47871264041211903
R2 (higher is better):  0.9151603219236621
site 5:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  471.6823581729242
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.25019630535495935
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  1.9445788442506224e+16 %
MSE (lower is better):  1851998.045359253
RMSE (lower is better):  1360.881348743987
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.7218575797515685
R2 (higher is better):  0.8970014913383768
site 6:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  2531.5389285751103
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.20071010891332644
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  4639990272660030.0 %
MSE (lower is better):  35126362.996317685
RMSE (lower is better):  5926.749783508469
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.4698954383528156
R2 (higher is better):  0.9144300843861555


Consommation:
site 1:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  1551.0002839594245
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.03880513056745771
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  3.030565121330721e+18 %
MSE (lower is better):  113405307.9615146
RMSE (lower is better):  10649.192831455097
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.26643664900416003
R2 (higher is better):  0.9307507538594737
site 2:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  348.2932647427688
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.03880513056745771
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  6.805449560778127e+17 %
MSE (lower is better):  5718732.4686088115
RMSE (lower is better):  2391.3871431888256
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.26643664900416
R2 (higher is better):  0.9307507538594737
siite 3:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  264.4790721889655
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.038805130567457706
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  5.1677685670801395e+17 %
MSE (lower is better):  3297556.5575951934
RMSE (lower is better):  1815.9175525323813
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.26643664900416
R2 (higher is better):  0.9307507538594737
site 4:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  169.5099701064662
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.011095042769820943
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  1.898487078792324e+17 %
MSE (lower is better):  3862971.7417427376
RMSE (lower is better):  1965.4444132925096
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.12864547031357287
R2 (higher is better):  0.9895078325088923
site 5:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  352.6514505045356
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.03880513056745771
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  6.890605997553068e+17 %
MSE (lower is better):  5862744.617531121
RMSE (lower is better):  2421.310516544939
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.26643664900416
R2 (higher is better):  0.9307507538594737
site 6:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  30427.183142011116
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.31961016920096436
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  5.559486368221668e+18 %
MSE (lower is better):  3277746516.6711826
RMSE (lower is better):  57251.60710994218
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.6013765963820441
R2 (higher is better):  0.582845100341258
site 7:
MAE sklearn (lower is better):  1357.8716287678476
Normalized MAE (lower is better):  0.2841895305757429
MAPE sklearn (lower is better):  2.8128425049692858e+17 %
MSE (lower is better):  7442611.962806275
RMSE (lower is better):  2728.115093394389
NRMSE (lower is better):  0.5709683679390742
R2 (higher is better):  0.6669352204852124