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IRONLOG Valuation Sheet

This is a practical founder worksheet for estimating what IRONLOG could be worth in an outright sale of the app, source code, brand assets, and related IP.

It is not legal, tax, or investment advice. It is a decision tool for negotiation prep.

1. Quick Positioning

Right now, IRONLOG looks more like a high-quality Android fitness product asset than a fully proven cash-flow business.

That means the valuation usually comes from a mix of:

  • replacement cost
  • product quality and differentiation
  • launch readiness
  • early traction or revenue if present
  • strategic buyer fit

If there is little or no revenue yet, the value is usually driven more by product readiness and buyer interest than by standard SaaS multiples.

2. Core Inputs

Fill these with your actual numbers.

Metric Your number Notes
Current MRR Monthly recurring revenue, if any
Annualized revenue (ARR) MRR x 12
Monthly profit / seller earnings Revenue minus real operating costs
Annualized seller earnings monthly seller earnings x 12
Total installs From Play Console / side-loading estimates
Monthly active users (MAU) Distinct users per month
Weekly active users (WAU) Distinct users per week
DAU / MAU Engagement ratio
30-day retention Critical quality metric
90-day retention Stronger signal if available
Paying users If monetized
Avg rating Play Store or beta feedback
Crash-free sessions Stability signal
Growth rate over last 3 months Revenue, MAU, or WAU growth
Email list / waitlist size Optional demand signal
B2B leads / partnership leads Optional strategic premium signal

3. Asset Floor

This is the lowest serious range a buyer might justify even before meaningful revenue.

3.1 Engineering replacement value

Estimate:

  • months to rebuild current product quality: _____
  • realistic loaded monthly engineering cost: _____
  • salvage factor: 25% to 45%

Formula:

engineering floor = rebuild months x monthly cost x salvage factor

Example:

  • 6 months
  • $10,000 per month
  • 35% salvage factor

Result:

6 x 10,000 x 0.35 = $21,000

3.2 Design / brand / release asset value

Estimate:

  • polished visual system value: _____
  • screenshots / store assets / icon / theme work: _____
  • documentation / release prep / QA / positioning: _____

Formula:

brand asset floor = sum of above

3.3 Product moat premium

Use this only if the app is genuinely ahead of clone-level trackers.

Possible premium drivers:

  • serious local-first backup/export story
  • differentiated muscle analytics
  • high-quality progression and recovery logic
  • strong plan library and workout intelligence
  • premium UX polish

Suggested range:

  • weak moat: $0 to $5,000
  • decent moat: $5,000 to $20,000
  • strong moat: $20,000+

3.4 Asset floor total

Formula:

asset floor total = engineering floor + brand asset floor + moat premium

4. Revenue-Based Value

Use this only if you have real revenue.

Conservative

ARR x 0.8 to 1.2

Base

ARR x 1.2 to 2.0

Optimistic

ARR x 2.0 to 3.0

Higher ranges usually require:

  • clear growth
  • strong retention
  • low churn
  • believable monetization engine

5. Earnings-Based Value

Use this if the app is already profitable and expenses are real.

Conservative

annual seller earnings x 2.0

Base

annual seller earnings x 3.0

Optimistic

annual seller earnings x 4.0 to 5.0

The higher end usually needs:

  • stable retention
  • low founder dependence
  • repeatable acquisition channel
  • clean legal / compliance posture

6. Strategic Premium Adjustments

After computing the floor or revenue value, adjust for buyer appeal.

Add premium if true

  • +10% to +20% if retention is clearly strong
  • +10% to +25% if the app is nearly Play-ready and policy-clean
  • +10% to +25% if there is real early revenue growth
  • +10% to +30% if a buyer could plug this into an existing audience, gym network, or coaching business

Apply discount if true

  • -10% to -25% if monetization is unproven
  • -10% to -25% if analytics/recovery systems still need hardening
  • -10% to -20% if legal docs, privacy policy, and trademark posture are unclear
  • -15% to -30% if the app depends heavily on you personally to operate or explain

7. Scenario Calculator

Fill this out once you have numbers.

Conservative case

  • asset floor total: _____
  • revenue value: _____
  • earnings value: _____
  • chosen base before adjustment: max(asset floor, revenue value, earnings value)
  • risk discount / premium: _____
  • final conservative estimate: _____

Base case

  • asset floor total: _____
  • revenue value: _____
  • earnings value: _____
  • chosen base before adjustment: max(asset floor, revenue value, earnings value)
  • risk discount / premium: _____
  • final base estimate: _____

Optimistic case

  • asset floor total: _____
  • revenue value: _____
  • earnings value: _____
  • chosen base before adjustment: max(asset floor, revenue value, earnings value)
  • risk discount / premium: _____
  • final optimistic estimate: _____

8. IRONLOG Current Ballpark

Based on current repo quality, feature depth, Android polish, and release readiness:

  • pre-revenue / low-traction asset sale range: roughly $25,000 to $75,000
  • strong early-positioning negotiation range: roughly $40,000 to $120,000
  • above that usually needs real user traction, revenue, or a strategic buyer who specifically wants this category

That means IRONLOG already looks good enough to be more than a hobby code dump, but the next big jump in value will come from proving:

  • real user retention
  • revenue
  • clean Play release readiness
  • legal/commercial clarity

9. What Increases Value Fastest

If the goal is eventual sale price, these are the highest-ROI moves:

  1. Ship on Play Store with clean compliance and a stable funnel.
  2. Prove retention with real users, especially 30-day and 90-day retention.
  3. Add a simple monetization layer that people actually pay for.
  4. Clean up legal posture: privacy policy, terms, branding ownership, commercial licensing clarity.
  5. Reduce buyer risk with good crash-free rate, backup reliability, and migration safety.

10. Seller Prep Checklist

Before talking to buyers, prepare:

  • product demo video
  • screenshots and store-style pitch deck
  • monthly metrics summary
  • retention charts
  • revenue screenshots if any
  • IP ownership statement
  • list of third-party dependencies and licenses
  • privacy policy and terms
  • short acquisition memo: what the buyer gets and why it matters

11. Recommended Next Step For IRONLOG

Right now the best move is not trying to maximize valuation through theory. It is:

  1. get the app fully stable and Play-ready
  2. launch publicly
  3. measure real traction for 60 to 90 days
  4. re-run this sheet with actual usage and revenue

That is what turns a speculative product valuation into a much stronger negotiation position.