ARK-Invest-Mach-33-SpaceX-Valuation-Model
The information presented reflects the views and assumptions of the authors at the time of publication. Please note that the authors' current views may materially differ from those presented without notice. The results will not be updated as the authors’ internal models or the underlying information change.
V1 published 06/10/25
This file “SpaceX 2030 Valuation Extract for Github” includes an extract of our 2030 valuation model for SpaceX, in collaboration with Mach33. Please read ARK’s blog (https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/ark-expected-value-spacex-2030) and Mach33’s Blog (https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-at-escape-velocity-ark-mach33-s-2-5t-2030-valuation-model) for a more detailed discussion of our assessment and key components of the model. The authors used a Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at our estimated price target for SpaceX as well as our bull and bear price targets. A description of each worksheet in the file: “Valuation Inputs & Logic” worksheet allows users to provide their own inputs for a fundamental-based valuation of SpaceX. Users can change the 17 key independent variables in cells C32-F48. Note that because our price target is derived from a Monte Carlo analysis, there is no one single bear and bull case.
“Earth” worksheet takes the variables from our "Valuation Inputs & Logic" tab and calculates single simulation runs using values within the ranges we laid out for each variable. This worksheet can be used to view a single simulation of the Monte Carlo valuation, note at any point when viewing this tab, you will be viewing one given simulation, and it is not representative of the actual valuation. Users also can edit the assumptions in column B.
“Earth Bandwidth TAM” worksheet is a top-down bandwidth model, which is open-sourced, available here. This is what drives our revenue estimates for SpaceX's Starlink and DTC revenue.
“Mars” worksheet takes the variables from our "Valuation Inputs & Logic" tab and calculates single simulation runs using values within the ranges we laid out for each variable. This worksheet can be used to view a single simulation of the Monte Carlo valuation, note at any point when viewing this tab, you will be viewing one given simulation, and it is not representative of the actual valuation. Users also can edit the assumptions in column B.
“Valuation Outputs” worksheet is an output of 5,000 simulation runs of our Monte Carlo. We have highlighted some key outputs from the model in each column. You can view simulation outputs after you change Monte Carlo Inputs. We will welcome all questions and constructive criticism and feedback.