Deliverables

1. Working model of importation and transmission that estimates total SARS-CoV-2 infections at the state level in a global context.
2. Calibration framework that fits model parameters to the early reported cases and first reported death in Indiana, provided alongside inferred trajectories of true undetected cases over the calibration period and forward in time for the predicted epidemic trajectory (in the absence of any public health interventions or behavior change).1
3. Documentation including model description and how to run it.

Requirements

1. Importation must occur in a synthetic population that reflects demographic and geographic characteristics of Indiana.
2. Time-varying importations to account for a domestic or global transmission rate and travel rate into Indiana.
3. Appropriate data sources to inform natural history parameters.