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which minimizes a first stage cost function $f(\mathbf{x}_1,
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\mathbf{y}_1)$ and the expected value of future costs over possible
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which minimizes a first stage cost function $c(\mathbf{x}_1,
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\mathbf{u}_1)$ and the expected value of future costs over possible
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values of the exogenous stochastic variable $\{w_{t}\}_{t=2}^{T} \in
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\Omega$.
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Here, $\mathbf{x}_0$ is the initial system state and the
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control decisions $\mathbf{y}_t$ are obtained at every period $t$
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control decisions $\mathbf{u}_t$ are obtained at every period $t$
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under a feasible region defined by the incoming state
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$\mathbf{x}_{t-1}$ and the realized uncertainty $w_t$. $\mathbf{E}_t$ represents the expected value over future uncertainties $\{w_{\tau}\}_{\tau=t}^{T}$. This
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optimization program assumes that the system is entirely defined by
@@ -87,7 +97,7 @@ constraints can be generally posed as:
Function $V_{t}(\mathbf{x}_{t-1}, w_t)$ is refered to as the value function. To find the optimal policy for the $1^{\text{st}}$ stage, we need to find the optimal policy for the entire horizon $\{t=2,\cdots,T\}$ or at least estimate the "optimal" value function.
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"""
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# ╔═╡ 60ba261a-f2eb-4b45-ad6d-b6042926ccab
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load(joinpath(class_dir, "indecision_tree.png"))
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# ╔═╡ 15709f7b-943e-4190-8f40-0cfdb8772183
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md"""
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Notice that the number of "nodes" to be evaluated (either decisions or their cost) grows exponetially with the number of stages. This the the *Curse of dimensionality*
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in stochastic programming.
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"""
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# ╔═╡ 5d7a4408-21ff-41ec-b004-4b0a9f04bb4f
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question_box(md"Can you name a few ways to try and/or solve this problem?")
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# ╔═╡ c08f511e-b91d-4d17-a286-96469c31568a
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md"## Example: Robotic Arm Manipulation"
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# ╔═╡ b3129bcb-c24a-4faa-a5cf-f69ce518ea87
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load(joinpath(class_dir, "nlp_robot_arm.png"))
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# ╔═╡ c1f43c8d-0616-4572-bb48-dbb71e40adda
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md"""
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The tip of the second link is computed using the direct geometric model:
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```math
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p(\theta_{1},\theta_{2}) \;=\;
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\begin{cases}
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x = L_{1}\,\sin\theta_{1} \;+\; L_{2}\,\sin\!\bigl(\theta_{1}+\theta_{2}\bigr),\\[6pt]
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y = L_{1}\,\cos\theta_{1} \;+\; L_{2}\,\cos\!\bigl(\theta_{1}+\theta_{2}\bigr).
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