text changes to 04, 06, 07, and parent

Author: Stephanie Owen

child_docs/04_stability_midatlantic.Rmd

@@ -9,11 +9,11 @@
 This year, we have updated the definition of stability for fisheries and ecosystems as a measure of how consistent we expect the system to be over time. Three components of stability are considered for the purpose of this report: volatility, adaptive capacity, and a shift from baseline. Volatility is a measure of predictability, where volatile conditions indicate that future years are more likely to be different than the recent past. Adaptive capacity refers to a system’s ability to respond to changes without fundamentally changing its composition or structure. A shift from baseline refers to a systemic shift in a system towards a new status, where prior conditions may no longer be the norm. Measures of volatility are currently being developed. Therefore, we assess fisheries and ecosystem stability as “stable” if there is no notable change in adaptive capacity or shifts from a historic baseline, and “not stable” if there are changes in either of these components.
 
 #### Fishery Stability 
-Indicators suggest that Mid-Atlantic fisheries have broadly shifted from the historic baseline. Commercial fishery fleet count has declined while fleet revenue diversity has been stable over time in the MAB, but current values are above the long-term average (Fig. \ref{fig:comm-div-fleet}). Revenue per unit effort remains steady or increasing over time for most gear types, indicating financial viability of current fishing operations. This indicates that the commercial fleet composition has changed, but the portfolio of species targeted is similar over time (Fig. \ref{fig:commercial-div-species-div}). Target species such as Atlantic mackerel and quahog have had reduced catch limits in recent years, resulting in reduced landings in these fisheries, and a decline in scallop catch within the MAB has severely reduced the total revenue generated in the region. Because non-MAFMC managed landings and revenue have declined, a larger share of the regional landings and revenue come from Council-managed fisheries.
+Indicators suggest that Mid-Atlantic fisheries have broadly shifted from the historic baseline. Commercial fishery fleet count has declined while fleet revenue diversity has been stable over time in the MAB, but current values are above the long-term average (Fig. \ref{fig:comm-div-fleet}). [Revenue per unit effort](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/effective_sweptarea.html) remains steady or increasing over time for most gear types, indicating financial viability of current fishing operations. This indicates that the commercial fleet composition has changed, but the portfolio of species targeted is similar over time (Fig. \ref{fig:commercial-div-species-div}). Target species such as Atlantic mackerel and quahog have had reduced catch limits in recent years, resulting in reduced landings in these fisheries, and a decline in scallop catch within the MAB has severely reduced the total revenue generated in the region. Because non-MAFMC managed landings and revenue have declined, a larger share of the regional landings and revenue come from Council-managed fisheries.
 
-The Crew Survey shows that specific aspects pertaining to sustainability and resilience of the fishing lifestyle are declining: predictability of earnings, the amount of time away from home, the physical fatigue of the job, and the personal health impacts have all been cited as dissatisfaction rates increase. Overall job satisfaction remains relatively stable over time, but unveils vulnerability as additional survey results show an aging population, particularly an increase in the 55+ crew cohort, and fewer individuals entering the fishery. This suggests a reduced capacity for Mid-Atlantic commercial fisheries to adapt to future uncertainties and change. 
+The [Crew Survey](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/crew_survey.html) shows that specific aspects pertaining to sustainability and resilience of the fishing lifestyle are declining: predictability of earnings, the amount of time away from home, the physical fatigue of the job, and the personal health impacts have all been cited as dissatisfaction rates increase. Overall job satisfaction remains relatively stable over time, but unveils vulnerability as additional survey results show an aging population, particularly an increase in the 55+ crew cohort, and fewer individuals entering the fishery. This suggests a reduced capacity for Mid-Atlantic commercial fisheries to adapt to future uncertainties and change. New [Communities at Sea](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/communities_at_sea.html) indicators that assess fishing communities’ ability to adapt to change are in development and will provide additional fishing industry indicators in future reports.
 
-Despite reduced recreational landings (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-landings}), the number of recreational trips is near average (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-op}), suggesting a shift to catch-and-release fishing. Billfish (i.e., white marlin) catch-and-release was especially high, possibly due to shifting effort due to the closure of the recreational bluefin tuna fishery in August 2025. Shark and large sport fish regulations, the right environmental conditions, and other circumstances may also contribute to reduced recreational landings. As noted above, [recreational fleet effort diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/recdat.html) is declining (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-div}), suggesting a shift in recreational fishing opportunities. The Mid-Atlantic has experienced a contraction of the party and charter sectors, with more recreational angling occurring from shore. Recreational species catch diversity has no long-term trend and has been at or above the long-term average since 2016 (Fig. \ref{fig:recdat-div-catch}), indicating that anglers continue to catch a mix of species. 
+Despite reduced [recreational landings](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/recdat.html) (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-landings}), the number of recreational trips is near average (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-op}), suggesting a shift to catch-and-release fishing. Billfish (i.e., white marlin) catch-and-release was especially high, possibly due to shifting effort due to the closure of the recreational bluefin tuna fishery in August 2025. Shark and large sport fish regulations, the right environmental conditions, and other circumstances may also contribute to reduced recreational landings. As noted above, [recreational fleet effort diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/recdat.html) is declining (Fig. \ref{fig:rec-div}), suggesting a shift in recreational fishing opportunities. The Mid-Atlantic has experienced a contraction of the party and charter sectors, with more recreational angling occurring from shore. Recreational species catch diversity has no long-term trend and has been at or above the long-term average since 2016 (Fig. \ref{fig:recdat-div-catch}), indicating that anglers continue to catch a mix of species. 
 
 ```{r comm-div-fleet, fig.width = 6.5, fig.asp = 0.3, fig.cap=return_caption(chunk_name = "comm-div-fleet", region = "MidAtlantic")}
 return_plot("comm-div-fleet", region = "MidAtlantic")
@@ -30,9 +30,9 @@ return_plot("recdat-div-catch", region = "MidAtlantic")
 ```
 
 #### Ecological Stability
-Long-term changes in biological processes suggest the Mid-Atlantic ecosystem is experiencing a systemic shift. Total annual [primary production](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/chl_pp.html), a measure of the total amount of carbon (i.e., energy) produced by phytoplankton per year, has no clear trend (Fig. \ref{fig:totpp}), suggesting stability in energy at the base of the food web. However, we are monitoring for shifts in the phytoplankton community, which can affect the amount of primary production available to higher trophic levels. [Zooplankton diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/zoo_diversity.html) is increasing in the MAB, and measures of zooplankton community composition also indicate a long-term shift in zooplankton communities. Together, these indicators show a gradual but systemic change in lower trophic levels towards a community with a higher proportion of euphausiids and less dominated by copepods, which would not be expected in a stable ecosystem.
+Long-term changes in biological processes suggest the Mid-Atlantic ecosystem is experiencing a systemic shift. Total annual [primary production](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/chl_pp.html), a measure of the total amount of carbon (i.e., energy) produced by phytoplankton per year, has no clear trend (Fig. \ref{fig:totpp}), suggesting stability in energy at the base of the food web. However, we are monitoring for shifts in the phytoplankton community, which can affect the amount of primary production available to higher trophic levels. [Zooplankton diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/zoo_diversity.html) is increasing in the MAB, and measures of zooplankton community composition also indicate a long-term shift in [zooplankton communities](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/zoo_communities.html) . Together, these indicators show a gradual but systemic change in lower trophic levels towards a community with a higher proportion of euphausiids and less dominated by copepods, which would not be expected in a stable ecosystem.
 
-There are long-term increases in the biomass of the euphausid, benthivore, and benthos guilds. These lower trophic groups have similar roles within the ecosystem and these changes indicate a shift towards an ecosystem with a higher representation of those functional groups. [Adult fish diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/exp_n.html), the expected number of species in a standard number of individuals sampled from the NEFSC bottom trawl survey, appears stable over time, with current values within one standard deviation from most historic estimates (Fig. \ref{fig:exp-n}). This suggests that biomass increases in some guilds is due to an overall productivity increase rather than an influx of new species.
+There are long-term increases in the biomass of the euphausid, benthivore, and benthos [guilds](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/aggregate_biomass.html) (Fig. \ref{fig:nefsc-biomass-mab}). These lower trophic groups have similar roles within the ecosystem and these changes indicate a shift towards an ecosystem with a higher representation of those functional groups. [Adult fish diversity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/exp_n.html), the expected number of species in a standard number of individuals sampled from the NEFSC bottom trawl survey, appears stable over time, with current values within one standard deviation from most historic estimates (Fig. \ref{fig:exp-n}). This suggests that biomass increases in some guilds is due to an overall productivity increase rather than an influx of new species.
 
 
 ```{r totpp, fig.cap=return_caption(chunk_name = "totpp", region = "MidAtlantic")}
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ return_plot("traits-tl", region = "MidAtlantic")
 ```
 
 ### Implications
-Fleet diversity indices are used by the MAFMC in their EAFM risk assessment to evaluate stability objectives, as well as risks to fishery resilience and maintaining equity in access to fishery resources. Instability in the commercial fleet count metric suggests lower capacity to respond to the current range of fishing opportunities. Commercial species permit revenue diversity is relatively stable but comparisons are limited by missing historical (pre-2003) clam fishery data.
+Fleet diversity indices are used by the MAFMC in their EAFM risk assessment to evaluate stability objectives, as well as risks to fishery resilience and maintaining equity in access to fishery resources. Instability in the commercial fleet count metric suggests lower capacity to respond to the current range of fishing opportunities. Commercial species permit revenue diversity is relatively stable (Fig. \ref{fig:commercial-div-species-div}) but comparisons are limited by missing historical (pre-2003) clam fishery data.
 
 Declining recreational fleet effort diversity indicates that the party/charter boat sector continues to contract, with shoreside angling becoming a greater percentage of recreational angler trips. Stability in recreational species catch diversity has been maintained by a different set of species over time. A recent increase in Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) and South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC) managed species in recreational catch is helping to maintain diversity in the same range that MAFMC and New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC) managed species supported in the 1990s. These changes in effort and species trends may necessitate new or changing management considerations to ensure effective tools and opportunities are in place to support recreational fisheries.