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Deep Forecasting - Fall 2025

Advanced Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Deep Learning

Utah State University | Huntsman School of Business

GitHub Colab Python


πŸ“š Course Overview

This comprehensive course introduces students to state-of-the-art time series forecasting techniques, progressing from classical statistical methods to advanced deep learning architectures. Students will gain hands-on experience with real-world forecasting problems using industry-standard tools and frameworks.

🎯 Learning Objectives

Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:

  • Master fundamental time series concepts and decomposition techniques
  • Implement classical forecasting methods (ETS, ARIMA/SARIMA)
  • Apply machine learning algorithms to time series problems
  • Design and train deep neural networks for sequence modeling
  • Deploy production-ready forecasting models at scale
  • Evaluate and compare model performance using appropriate metrics

πŸ“‹ Prerequisites

  • Programming: Basic Python proficiency (variables, loops, functions)
  • Mathematics: College-level statistics and linear algebra
  • Software: Google account for Colab access (no local installation required)

For students needing a refresher, we provide a comprehensive Python Crash Course covering:

  • Python basics, NumPy, Pandas
  • Data visualization (Matplotlib, Seaborn)
  • Time series data manipulation

πŸ—‚οΈ Course Modules

Module 1: Demystifying Time Series Data and Modeling

  • Time series components and patterns
  • Stationarity and transformations
  • Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation

Module 2: Setting up Deep Forecasting Environment

  • Python environment configuration
  • Essential libraries and tools
  • Google Colab setup and best practices

Module 3: Exponential Smoothing Methods

  • Simple, Holt's, and Holt-Winters methods
  • ETS (Error, Trend, Seasonal) models
  • Model selection and validation

Module 4: ARIMA Models

  • AR, MA, and ARMA processes
  • ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA)
  • Box-Jenkins methodology

Module 5: Machine Learning for Time Series

  • Feature engineering for time series
  • Tree-based methods (Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM)
  • Cross-validation strategies

Module 6: Deep Neural Networks

  • Feedforward networks for time series
  • Backpropagation and optimization
  • TensorFlow/Keras implementation

Module 7: Deep Sequence Modeling

  • Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN)
  • Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks
  • Bidirectional and stacked architectures

Module 8: Prophet and NeuralProphet

  • Forecasting at scale
  • Handling seasonality and holidays
  • Uncertainty quantification

πŸ› οΈ Tools and Platforms

Primary Frameworks

Development Environment

  • Google Colab: Cloud-based Jupyter notebooks
  • GitHub: Version control and collaboration
  • Requirements: Modern web browser, stable internet connection

πŸ“Š Datasets

The course includes various real-world datasets:

  • Airline Passengers: Classic time series dataset
  • Retail Sales: Rossmann store sales data
  • Economic Indicators: US GDP and macroeconomic data
  • Stock Market: Financial time series examples
  • Custom Projects: Students can bring their own data

All datasets are available in the data/ directory.


πŸ’» Getting Started

Option 1: Google Colab (Recommended)

  1. Click on any notebook's "Open in Colab" button
  2. Sign in with your Google account
  3. Run cells sequentially (Shift+Enter)

Option 2: Local Installation

# Clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/PJalgotrader/Deep_forecasting-USU.git
cd Deep_forecasting-USU

# Create virtual environment (recommended)
python -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate  # On Windows: venv\Scripts\activate

# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Launch Jupyter
jupyter notebook

Note: The installation may take several minutes as it includes deep learning frameworks and multiple ML libraries. For lighter installation, you can install packages as needed for specific modules.


πŸ“– Additional Resources

Video Tutorials

Recommended Reading

  • Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Hyndman & Athanasopoulos
  • Deep Learning by Goodfellow, Bengio, and Courville
  • Course papers in Lectures and codes/

Useful Links


πŸ‘¨β€πŸ« Instructor

Pedram Jahangiry, PhD, CFA
Professional Practice Assistant Professor
Data Analytics and Information Systems
Huntsman School of Business, Utah State University

Office Hours: By appointment

Background

Dr. Jahangiry brings extensive industry experience from his role as a Research Associate in the Financial Modeling Group at BlackRock NYC. His research focuses on machine learning, deep learning, and time series forecasting applications in finance and business analytics. He mentors students at the Analytics Solutions Center, providing hands-on experience with real corporate analytics projects.


🀝 Contributing

We welcome contributions from students and the community! Please feel free to:

  • Report issues or bugs
  • Suggest improvements or new examples
  • Share your projects and applications
  • Submit pull requests with enhancements

πŸ“„ License

This course material is freely available for educational purposes. All rights reserved by Dr. Pedram Jahangiry and Utah State University.


πŸ™ Acknowledgments

Special thanks to:

  • The Huntsman School of Business for supporting this course
  • The Analytics Solutions Center team
  • All students and contributors who have helped improve this material
  • The open-source community for the amazing tools and libraries

Course Logo

Fall 2025 | Utah State University

Empowering the next generation of data scientists and forecasting experts

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GitHub repository for deep forecasting courses owned and maintained by prof. Jahangiry

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