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Update two-child limit post with primary sources and yearly estimates#2801

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MaxGhenis merged 11 commits intomasterfrom
update-two-child-limit-sources
Nov 2, 2025
Merged

Update two-child limit post with primary sources and yearly estimates#2801
MaxGhenis merged 11 commits intomasterfrom
update-two-child-limit-sources

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Summary

This PR updates the UK two-child limit post to include primary sources and adds a comprehensive comparison table of cost estimates across different organizations.

Changes Made

  • Replaced secondary news article links with primary sources from research organizations
  • Added specific years for all cost estimates
  • Created an appendix table showing year-by-year cost estimates from PolicyEngine, IFS, IPPR, and Resolution Foundation
  • Clarified that IPPR's £3.2bn estimate includes both two-child limit and benefit cap removal
  • Added reference in main text to the new appendix table

Cost Estimates Comparison

The new appendix table shows:

  • PolicyEngine: £2.7bn (2026-27) rising to £3.0bn (2029-30)
  • IFS: £2.5bn (2024-25) rising to £3.4-3.6bn (2029-30)
  • IPPR: £3.2bn (2026-27) for both two-child limit and benefit cap
  • Resolution Foundation: £2.5bn (2024-25) rising to £3.5bn (2029-30)

Primary Sources Added

Fixes #2800

… table

- Replace secondary news sources with primary research links
- Add specific years for all cost estimates
- Create appendix table comparing estimates across organizations
- Clarify IPPR estimate includes benefit cap removal

Fixes #2800
Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings November 1, 2025 16:10
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Pull Request Overview

This PR improves the documentation of UK two-child limit cost estimates by replacing secondary news sources with primary research organization sources.

  • Moved detailed cost comparison table from the main "Budgetary impact" section to a new appendix
  • Added comprehensive year-by-year cost estimates across multiple organizations (IFS, IPPR, Resolution Foundation)
  • Updated source links to point directly to primary research publications instead of news articles

Reviewed Changes

Copilot reviewed 2 out of 2 changed files in this pull request and generated 1 comment.

File Description
src/posts/articles/uk-two-child-limit.md Reorganized budgetary impact section and added appendix with comprehensive cost estimate comparison table linking to primary sources
changelog_entry.yaml Documents the changes as a patch-level update with details about source improvements and appendix addition

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- Fix Resolution Foundation 2029-30 estimate to £3.5bn (not £3.6bn)
- Add 'Full coverage' row showing £3.6bn estimates for both IFS and Resolution Foundation
- Add footnote explaining full coverage expected around 2035
Only include verified RF estimates:
- £2.5bn in 2024-25
- £3.6bn at full coverage
- Updated IFS estimate to £2.5bn in the long run for two-child limit removal alone
- Added note that £3.3bn would be the cost if household benefit cap also removed
- Removed incorrect £3.0-3.6bn range that wasn't in the actual IFS report
- Source: IFS October 2024 'Child poverty: trends and policy options' report
Update cost and poverty impact estimates across years 2025-2029:
- Costs: £2.7bn (2025) rising to £3.1bn (2029)
- Child poverty reduction: 13.6% (2025) to 15.5% (2029)
- Overall poverty reduction: 6.5% (2025) to 7.3% (2029)

Update appendix comparison table with new estimates for all years.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ations

Updated cost and poverty impact estimates across years 2025-2029:
- Costs: £2.7bn (2025) rising to £3.1bn (2029)
- Child poverty reduction: 13.6% (2025) to 15.5% (2029)
- Overall poverty reduction: 6.5% (2025) to 7.3% (2029)

Fixed appendix to properly cite JRF (not IPPR) as source:
- Added JRF £2.7bn estimate for 2025/26 (two-child limit + benefit cap)
- Added JRF £2.8bn estimate for 2029/30 (two-child limit only)
- Included reference to JRF's earlier May 2025 estimates
- Updated sources to cite all three relevant JRF reports
- Removed misleading IPPR citation that was actually gambling tax revenue

Updated posts.json description to reflect 2026-27 numbers (£2.8bn, 15.7%).

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
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@vahid-ahmadi fyi

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 80323ee into master Nov 2, 2025
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@github-project-automation github-project-automation bot moved this from Todo to Done in policyengine-app Nov 2, 2025
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the update-two-child-limit-sources branch November 2, 2025 16:31
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Update two-child limit post with primary sources and specific years

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