Update two-child limit post with primary sources and yearly estimates#2801
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Update two-child limit post with primary sources and yearly estimates#2801
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… table - Replace secondary news sources with primary research links - Add specific years for all cost estimates - Create appendix table comparing estimates across organizations - Clarify IPPR estimate includes benefit cap removal Fixes #2800
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Pull Request Overview
This PR improves the documentation of UK two-child limit cost estimates by replacing secondary news sources with primary research organization sources.
- Moved detailed cost comparison table from the main "Budgetary impact" section to a new appendix
- Added comprehensive year-by-year cost estimates across multiple organizations (IFS, IPPR, Resolution Foundation)
- Updated source links to point directly to primary research publications instead of news articles
Reviewed Changes
Copilot reviewed 2 out of 2 changed files in this pull request and generated 1 comment.
| File | Description |
|---|---|
| src/posts/articles/uk-two-child-limit.md | Reorganized budgetary impact section and added appendix with comprehensive cost estimate comparison table linking to primary sources |
| changelog_entry.yaml | Documents the changes as a patch-level update with details about source improvements and appendix addition |
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- Fix Resolution Foundation 2029-30 estimate to £3.5bn (not £3.6bn) - Add 'Full coverage' row showing £3.6bn estimates for both IFS and Resolution Foundation - Add footnote explaining full coverage expected around 2035
Only include verified RF estimates: - £2.5bn in 2024-25 - £3.6bn at full coverage
- Updated IFS estimate to £2.5bn in the long run for two-child limit removal alone - Added note that £3.3bn would be the cost if household benefit cap also removed - Removed incorrect £3.0-3.6bn range that wasn't in the actual IFS report - Source: IFS October 2024 'Child poverty: trends and policy options' report
Update cost and poverty impact estimates across years 2025-2029: - Costs: £2.7bn (2025) rising to £3.1bn (2029) - Child poverty reduction: 13.6% (2025) to 15.5% (2029) - Overall poverty reduction: 6.5% (2025) to 7.3% (2029) Update appendix comparison table with new estimates for all years. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ations Updated cost and poverty impact estimates across years 2025-2029: - Costs: £2.7bn (2025) rising to £3.1bn (2029) - Child poverty reduction: 13.6% (2025) to 15.5% (2029) - Overall poverty reduction: 6.5% (2025) to 7.3% (2029) Fixed appendix to properly cite JRF (not IPPR) as source: - Added JRF £2.7bn estimate for 2025/26 (two-child limit + benefit cap) - Added JRF £2.8bn estimate for 2029/30 (two-child limit only) - Included reference to JRF's earlier May 2025 estimates - Updated sources to cite all three relevant JRF reports - Removed misleading IPPR citation that was actually gambling tax revenue Updated posts.json description to reflect 2026-27 numbers (£2.8bn, 15.7%). 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@vahid-ahmadi fyi |
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
This PR updates the UK two-child limit post to include primary sources and adds a comprehensive comparison table of cost estimates across different organizations.
Changes Made
Cost Estimates Comparison
The new appendix table shows:
Primary Sources Added
Fixes #2800