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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/posts/articles/Benefit-uprating-25.md
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PolicyEngine estimates that the 1.7% benefits uprating for 2025/26:

- increases government costs by [£2.5 billion](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=1&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=69807&mode=lite)
- increases government costs by [£2.5 billion](https://legacy.policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=1&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=69807&mode=lite)
- lowers poverty by 1.8%
- raises net income for 45.9% of people

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26 changes: 13 additions & 13 deletions src/posts/articles/american-family-act-2025.md

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18 changes: 9 additions & 9 deletions src/posts/articles/american-worker-rebate-act.md
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Expand Up @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Our microsimulation model, assuming no changes to economic conditions, projects

- Expected to reduce the Gini index of inequality by 1.1%

_Use PolicyEngine to [view the full results](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) or calculate the [effect on your household](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=intro&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462)._
_Use PolicyEngine to [view the full results](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) or calculate the [effect on your household](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=intro&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462)._

## How the rebate works

Expand All @@ -22,9 +22,9 @@ Eligible households receive the full payment if their adjusted gross income (AGI

## Household impacts

Let's examine how the AWRA's tariff rebates could affect a hypothetical U.S. family. A married couple in Florida with two children earning $100,000 would receive the [full $2,400 rebate](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55185) in 2026, assuming all family members have valid SSNs. However, if one parent does not meet the SSN requirement and does not qualify for the armed services exception, the entire household is ineligible and [receives no benefit](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55186). If one child lacks a valid SSN, the household still qualifies [for $1,800](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55197), the full amount minus $600 for the ineligible child.
Let's examine how the AWRA's tariff rebates could affect a hypothetical U.S. family. A married couple in Florida with two children earning $100,000 would receive the [full $2,400 rebate](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55185) in 2026, assuming all family members have valid SSNs. However, if one parent does not meet the SSN requirement and does not qualify for the armed services exception, the entire household is ineligible and [receives no benefit](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55186). If one child lacks a valid SSN, the household still qualifies [for $1,800](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55197), the full amount minus $600 for the ineligible child.

Additionally, if household earnings were to rise to $160,000, then the $2,400 benefit would [fall to $1,900](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55199) as the rebate phaseout would now apply. The entire benefit would phase out once the household's AGI [reaches $198,000](https://policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55200).[^3] Table 1 summarizes the benefit amounts for each household scenario.
Additionally, if household earnings were to rise to $160,000, then the $2,400 benefit would [fall to $1,900](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55199) as the rebate phaseout would now apply. The entire benefit would phase out once the household's AGI [reaches $198,000](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/household?focus=householdOutput.netIncome&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462&household=55200).[^3] Table 1 summarizes the benefit amounts for each household scenario.

**Table 1: Summary of Household Impacts for a Married Couple with Two Children**

Expand All @@ -50,35 +50,35 @@ Figure 2 shows how the AWRA alters the household's marginal tax rates. The house

## Microsimulation results

Using data from tax year 2024, the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025 [would cost $141.3 billion](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.budgetaryImpact.overall&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), according to PolicyEngine's static modeling. Due to interactions with state tax codes, the AWRA would also raise $58.9 million in state and local tax revenue.
Using data from tax year 2024, the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025 [would cost $141.3 billion](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.budgetaryImpact.overall&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), according to PolicyEngine's static modeling. Due to interactions with state tax codes, the AWRA would also raise $58.9 million in state and local tax revenue.

The legislation would [raise the net income of 80.3%](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.winnersAndLosers.incomeDecile&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) of residents in the U.S, though the degree to which they benefit varies by income decile. Overall, 30% of residents would experience a gain of more than 5% of their net income, including 93% of those in the lowest income decile. In the top income decile, 41% of residents would see a gain (all amounting to less than 5% in their net income).
The legislation would [raise the net income of 80.3%](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.winnersAndLosers.incomeDecile&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) of residents in the U.S, though the degree to which they benefit varies by income decile. Overall, 30% of residents would experience a gain of more than 5% of their net income, including 93% of those in the lowest income decile. In the top income decile, 41% of residents would see a gain (all amounting to less than 5% in their net income).

**Figure 3: Winners of the AWRA's Tariff Rebates**

![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*uFiy--rmBE7w_6L-)

The [average household benefit](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.distributionalImpact.incomeDecile.average&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) of the AWRA would be $973. The decile experiencing the largest gain is the seventh ($1,273), while the tenth would benefit the least with an average benefit of $469. This is due to the phaseout of the rebates.
The [average household benefit](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.distributionalImpact.incomeDecile.average&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) of the AWRA would be $973. The decile experiencing the largest gain is the seventh ($1,273), while the tenth would benefit the least with an average benefit of $469. This is due to the phaseout of the rebates.

**Figure 4: Average Benefit of the AWRA's Tariff Rebates**

![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*bIQjYwzSnpQLt6Iw)

We project the AWRA to [lower poverty](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.povertyImpact.regular.byAge&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), as defined by the Supplemental Poverty Measure, by 6.9%, with seniors seeing the largest reduction at 11.7%. Deep poverty would [fall by 7.5%](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.povertyImpact.deep.byAge&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), including a 15.2% reduction in deep child poverty.
We project the AWRA to [lower poverty](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.povertyImpact.regular.byAge&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), as defined by the Supplemental Poverty Measure, by 6.9%, with seniors seeing the largest reduction at 11.7%. Deep poverty would [fall by 7.5%](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.povertyImpact.deep.byAge&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462), including a 15.2% reduction in deep child poverty.

**Figure 5: Poverty Impact of the AWRA' Tariff Rebates**

![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/0*qSsl1Vo4_4slkDjA)

The proposed legislation would also [lower the Gini index of inequality](https://policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) by 1.07%, and lower the share of net income held by the top 10% and 1% households by 0.8% and 0.84%, respectively.
The proposed legislation would also [lower the Gini index of inequality](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&region=us&timePeriod=2024&baseline=2&dataset=enhanced_cps&reform=89462) by 1.07%, and lower the share of net income held by the top 10% and 1% households by 0.8% and 0.84%, respectively.

## Conclusion

The American Worker Rebate Act of 2025 would send direct payments to qualifying families, which would cost $141.3 billion, using data from tax year 2024. The tariff rebates would provide an average benefit of $973 to households, with those in the seventh decile experiencing the largest gain. The bill is expected to reduce the Supplemental Poverty Measure by 6.9% and lower the Gini index of income inequality by 1.07%.

As policymakers evaluate reforms such as these, analytical tools like PolicyEngine offer critical insights into the impacts on diverse household compositions and the broader economy.

We invite you to explore our [additional analyses](https://policyengine.org/us/research) and use [PolicyEngine](https://policyengine.org/us) to calculate your own tax benefits or design custom policy reforms.
We invite you to explore our [additional analyses](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us/research) and use [PolicyEngine](https://legacy.policyengine.org/us) to calculate your own tax benefits or design custom policy reforms.

[^1]: Qualifying persons include the head and spouse of the household and any CTC-qualifying children. Adult dependents are not eligible for payments.

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Expand Up @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ On Wednesday, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak [published the

PolicyEngine estimates that this reform would cost £2.8bn per year, reduce poverty by 3.1%, and benefit 12% of the population. It will also reduce marginal tax rates by between 5.4pp and 63pp for people with income between the baseline work allowance and UC entitlement, while raising marginal tax rates by 37.4pp for people with income previously too high to receive UC.

Read on for more details, or [jump to the reform in PolicyEngine](https://policyengine.org/uk/population-impact?UC_reduction_rate=55&UC_work_allowance_with_housing=335&UC_work_allowance_without_housing=557&policy_date=20211101) to see how the reform affects the UK population and your own household.
Read on for more details, or [jump to the reform in PolicyEngine](https://legacy.policyengine.org/uk/population-impact?UC_reduction_rate=55&UC_work_allowance_with_housing=335&UC_work_allowance_without_housing=557&policy_date=20211101) to see how the reform affects the UK population and your own household.

## How Universal Credit works

Expand All @@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ The reforms announced in the budget reduce the taper rate by 8pp, from 63% to 55

### UK impact

PolicyEngine estimates the total cost of introducing the reform to be £2.7bn per year. The reform benefits 12% of the population, and it reduces poverty by 3.1% (working-age poverty decreases by 3.0% and child poverty by 6.0%). For context, PolicyEngine estimates that [restoring Universal Credit’s pandemic-related Standard Allowance](https://policyengine.org/uk/population-impact?UC_couple_old=596.58&UC_couple_young=490.6&UC_single_old=411.51&UC_single_young=344) would cost £4.2bn, reduce poverty by 4.3%, and benefit 18% of the UK.
PolicyEngine estimates the total cost of introducing the reform to be £2.7bn per year. The reform benefits 12% of the population, and it reduces poverty by 3.1% (working-age poverty decreases by 3.0% and child poverty by 6.0%). For context, PolicyEngine estimates that [restoring Universal Credit’s pandemic-related Standard Allowance](https://legacy.policyengine.org/uk/population-impact?UC_couple_old=596.58&UC_couple_young=490.6&UC_single_old=411.51&UC_single_young=344) would cost £4.2bn, reduce poverty by 4.3%, and benefit 18% of the UK.

Broadly, the reform is progressive; however, individuals in the first decile gain less than those in the second, third and fourth deciles, due to their lower likelihood to earn above the Work Allowance.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ The reform lowers marginal tax rates more than it raises them, but its effect is

We’re pleased to share this first interactive analysis of the Autumn Budget UC reform, and the first to provide personalised household impacts. Our findings broadly resemble those from the [IFS](https://ifs.org.uk/uploads/Autumn-Budget-2021-Living-Standards-by-Xiaowei-Xu.pdf) and the [Resolution Foundation](https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-boris-budget/), who also estimate the cost at around £3bn and identify similar distributional impacts.

For more timely analysis of tax and benefit reforms, follow us here and on social media, and to create your own policy, try PolicyEngine at [policyengine.org.](https://policyengine.org/)
For more timely analysis of tax and benefit reforms, follow us here and on social media, and to create your own policy, try PolicyEngine at [policyengine.org.](https://legacy.policyengine.org/)

_2021–11–04 update: This now reflects PolicyEngine 1.1.0, which incorporates Universal Credit’s minimum income floor for self-employed people._

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