Refining scenarios

config/config.default.yaml

@@ -498,7 +498,7 @@ sector:
   ICE_upper_degree_factor: 1.6
   EV_lower_degree_factor: 0.98
   EV_upper_degree_factor: 0.63
-  bev_dsm: true
+  bev_dsm: 2030
   bev_availability: 0.5
   bev_energy: 0.05
   bev_charge_efficiency: 0.9

config/config.yaml

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
-  prefix: 20250122-demand-scenarios
+  prefix: 20250124-finalfixes
   name:
   # - CurrentPolicies
   - KN2045_Bal_v4
@@ -438,25 +438,25 @@ solving:
           DE:
             2020: 54.5
             2025: 69
-            2030: 157 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2035
-            2035: 250
+            2030: 115 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2030
+            2035: 160 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2040
             2040: 250
             2045: 250
         offwind:
           DE:
             2020: 7.8
             2025: 11.3
             2030: 29.3 # uba Projektionsbericht and NEP without delayed BalWin 3
-            2035: 70
-            2040: 70
+            2035: 50 # Planned projects until 2035 (offshore_connection_points.csv) -1.3 GW for potential delays
+            2040: 65   # Planned projects until 2040 -1.5 GW for potential retirments
             2045: 70
         solar:
           DE:
             2020: 53.7
             2025: 110 # EEG2023; assumes for 2026: 128 GW, assuming a fair share reached by end of 2025
-            2030: 309 # EEG2023 Ziel für 2035
-            2035: 1000
-            2040: 1000
+            2030: 235 # PV Ziel 2030 + 20 GW
+            2035: 400
+            2040: 800
             2045: 1000
       Store:
         co2 sequestered:

config/scenarios.manual.yaml

@@ -57,9 +57,7 @@ CurrentPolicies:
               2020: 7.8
               2025: 11.3
               2030: 17.3 # 12 less than NEP, because of 1 year delay
-              2035: 35 # 29.3 + a little extra
-              2040: 70
-              2045: 70
+              2035: 40 # 29.3 + half of extra projects
           onwind:
             DE:
               2030: 94.5 # uba Projektionsbericht
@@ -605,9 +603,7 @@ KN2045minus_WorstCase:
               2020: 7.8
               2025: 11.3
               2030: 17.3 # 12 less than NEP, because of 1 year delay
-              2035: 35 # 29.3 + a little extra
-              2040: 70
-              2045: 70
+              2035: 40 # 29.3 + half of extra projects
           onwind:
             DE:
               2030: 94.5 # uba Projektionsbericht

doc/configtables/sector.csv

@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ ICE_lower_degree_factor,--,float,Share increase in energy demand in internal com
 ICE_upper_degree_factor,--,float,Share increase in energy demand in internal combustion engine (ICE) for each degree difference between the hot environment and the maximum temperature.
 EV_lower_degree_factor,--,float,Share increase in energy demand in electric vehicles (EV) for each degree difference between the cold environment and the minimum temperature.
 EV_upper_degree_factor,--,float,Share increase in energy demand in electric vehicles (EV) for each degree difference between the hot environment and the maximum temperature.
-bev_dsm,--,"{true, false}",Add the option for battery electric vehicles (BEV) to participate in demand-side management (DSM)
+bev_dsm,--,"{true, false} or startyear as int",Add the option for battery electric vehicles (BEV) to participate in demand-side management (DSM). If an int is passed it is interpreted as the year from which on BEV DSM is available.
 ,,,
 bev_availability,--,float,The share for battery electric vehicles (BEV) that are able to do demand side management (DSM)
 bev_energy,--,float,The average size of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in MWh

scripts/_helpers.py

@@ -471,7 +471,7 @@ def mock_snakemake(
     else:
         root_dir = Path(root_dir).resolve()
 
-    user_in_script_dir = Path.cwd().resolve() == script_dir
+    user_in_script_dir = Path.cwd().resolve().is_relative_to(Path(script_dir))
     if str(submodule_dir) in __file__:
         # the submodule_dir path is only need to locate the project dir
         os.chdir(Path(__file__[: __file__.find(str(submodule_dir))]))

scripts/prepare_sector_network.py

@@ -2029,7 +2029,7 @@ def add_EVs(
             efficiency=options["bev_charge_efficiency"],
         )
 
-    if options["bev_dsm"]:
+    if options["bev_dsm"] and options["bev_dsm"] <= investment_year:
         e_nom = (
             number_cars
             * options["bev_energy"]

scripts/pypsa-de/additional_functionality.py

@@ -208,6 +208,27 @@ def h2_import_limits(n, investment_year, limits_volume_max):
             carrier_attribute="",
         )
 
+        logger.info("Adding H2 export ban")
+
+        cname = f"H2_export_ban-{ct}"
+
+        n.model.add_constraints(lhs >= 0, name=f"GlobalConstraint-{cname}")
+
+        if cname in n.global_constraints.index:
+            logger.warning(
+                f"Global constraint {cname} already exists. Dropping and adding it again."
+            )
+            n.global_constraints.drop(cname, inplace=True)
+
+        n.add(
+            "GlobalConstraint",
+            cname,
+            constant=0,
+            sense=">=",
+            type="",
+            carrier_attribute="",
+        )
+
 
 def h2_production_limits(n, investment_year, limits_volume_min, limits_volume_max):
     for ct in limits_volume_max["electrolysis"]:
@@ -647,6 +668,45 @@ def add_h2_derivate_limit(n, investment_year, limits_volume_max):
             carrier_attribute="",
         )
 
+    # The following export bans  for DE are added unconditionally, independent of config
+    ct = "DE"
+    logger.info("Adding net export bans for H2 derivatives in DE")
+
+    for incarrier, outcarrier in [
+        ("EU methanol -> DE methanol", "DE methanol -> EU methanol"),
+        ("EU renewable gas -> DE gas", "DE renewable gas -> EU gas"),
+        ("EU renewable oil -> DE oil", "DE renewable oil -> EU oil"),
+    ]:
+        incoming = n.links.index[n.links.index == incarrier]
+        outgoing = n.links.index[n.links.index == outcarrier]
+        incoming_p = (
+            n.model["Link-p"].loc[:, incoming] * n.snapshot_weightings.generators
+        ).sum()
+        outgoing_p = (
+            n.model["Link-p"].loc[:, outgoing] * n.snapshot_weightings.generators
+        ).sum()
+
+        lhs = incoming_p - outgoing_p
+
+        cname = f"renewable{incarrier.split()[-1]}_export_ban-{ct}"
+
+        n.model.add_constraints(lhs >= 0, name=f"GlobalConstraint-{cname}")
+
+        if cname in n.global_constraints.index:
+            logger.warning(
+                f"Global constraint {cname} already exists. Dropping and adding it again."
+            )
+            n.global_constraints.drop(cname, inplace=True)
+
+        n.add(
+            "GlobalConstraint",
+            cname,
+            constant=0,
+            sense=">=",
+            type="",
+            carrier_attribute="",
+        )
+
 
 def adapt_nuclear_output(n):
     logger.info(

scripts/pypsa-de/export_ariadne_variables.py

@@ -5,6 +5,9 @@
 import os
 import re
 import sys
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.abspath(os.path.dirname(__file__) + "/../.."))
+
 from functools import reduce
 
 import numpy as np
@@ -248,7 +251,9 @@ def _get_h2_fossil_fraction(n):
         .sum()
     )
 
-    h2_fossil_fraction = total_h2_supply.get("SMR") / total_h2_supply.sum()
+    h2_fossil_fraction = (
+        total_h2_supply.filter(like="SMR").sum() / total_h2_supply.sum()
+    )
 
     return h2_fossil_fraction
 

scripts/pypsa-de/modify_cost_data.py

@@ -150,4 +150,28 @@ def carbon_component_fossils(costs, co2_price):
         f"Setting lifetime of central gas CHP to {costs.at[("central gas CHP" , "lifetime") , "value"]} {costs.at[("central gas CHP" , "lifetime") , "unit"]}."
     )
 
+    # decrease Fischer-Tropsch efficiency
+    costs.at[("Fischer-Tropsch", "efficiency"), "value"] = (
+        1 / costs.at[("Fischer-Tropsch", "hydrogen-input"), "value"]
+    )
+    costs.at[("Fischer-Tropsch", "efficiency"), "source"] = "inverse of hydrogen-input"
+
+    # increase FOM of offshore wind connection (fix for costs.csv)
+    costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "value"] = 0.35
+    costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "unit"] = costs.at[
+        ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
+    ]
+    costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-underground", "FOM"), "value"] = 0.35
+    costs.loc[("offwind-dc-connection-underground", "FOM"), "unit"] = costs.at[
+        ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
+    ]
+    costs.loc[("offwind-ac-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "value"] = 0.35
+    costs.loc[("offwind-ac-connection-submarine", "FOM"), "unit"] = costs.at[
+        ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
+    ]
+    costs.loc[("offwind-ac-connection-underground", "FOM"), "value"] = 0.35
+    costs.loc[("offwind-ac-connection-underground", "FOM"), "unit"] = costs.at[
+        ("offwind", "FOM"), "unit"
+    ]
+
     costs.to_csv(snakemake.output[0])

scripts/pypsa-de/plot_ariadne_report.py

@@ -16,17 +16,16 @@
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 import pypsa
+from export_ariadne_variables import get_discretized_value, process_postnetworks
 from matplotlib.lines import Line2D
 from matplotlib.patches import Patch
 from matplotlib.ticker import FuncFormatter
-from pypsa.plot import add_legend_lines
+from pypsa.plot import add_legend_circles, add_legend_lines, add_legend_patches
 
 from scripts._helpers import configure_logging, mock_snakemake, set_scenario_config
-from scripts.export_ariadne_variables import get_discretized_value, process_postnetworks
 from scripts.plot_power_network import load_projection
 from scripts.plot_summary import preferred_order, rename_techs
 from scripts.prepare_sector_network import prepare_costs
-from scripts.pypsa.plot import add_legend_circles, add_legend_lines, add_legend_patches
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
@@ -2449,7 +2448,6 @@ def plot_elec_map_de(
         frameon=True,
         facecolor="white",
         fontsize=14,
-
     )
 
     add_legend_patches(ax, colors, labels, legend_kw=legend_kw_patches)

scripts/pypsa-de/plot_ariadne_variables.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
 import pandas as pd
 
 from scripts._helpers import mock_snakemake
+
 TWh2PJ = 3.6