A simulation project to explore the way in which a bookmaker's book of bets evolves over time, and how to reprice odds to ensure a well-balanced book.
OUTCOME_1 = "horse 1"
OUTCOME_2 = "horse 2"
OUTCOME_3 = "horse 3"
book = Bookmaker([OUTCOME_1, OUTCOME_2, OUTCOME_3])
# Set current odds for the market
book.set_odds(OUTCOME_1, 2.30)
book.set_odds(OUTCOME_2, 3.20)
book.set_odds(OUTCOME_3, 3.10)
book.show_odds_and_overround()
# Add some bets
book.add_bet(OUTCOME_1, 50)
book.add_bet(OUTCOME_2, 31)
book.add_bet(OUTCOME_3, 32)
# Let's see what our liability now looks like
book.book_of_bets()
book.summarise_risk_position()Current Odds & Implied Probabilities:
horse 1: Odds = 2.30, Implied = 43.48%
horse 2: Odds = 3.20, Implied = 31.25%
horse 3: Odds = 3.10, Implied = 32.26%
Total Implied Probability: 106.99%
Overround: 6.99%
Book of bets (our exposure):
Outcome Stake Odds Payout
horse 1 50.00 2.30 115.00
horse 2 31.00 3.20 99.20
horse 3 32.00 3.10 99.20
Total money taken: £113.00
If 'HORSE 1 wins' happens:
Total payout: £115.00
Bookmaker profit: £-2.00
If 'HORSE 2 wins' happens:
Total payout: £99.20
Bookmaker profit: £13.80
If 'HORSE 3 wins' happens:
Total payout: £99.20
Bookmaker profit: £13.80