Versioned, referenceable, operationally verifiable projections
as the operational layer derived from hypotheses + matrix under MMS governance.
This repository contains exclusively:
- projections / consequence derivations (“predictions”) from explicit hypotheses (
H###) - run artifacts with manifest obligation (inputs/outputs/validation)
- evaluations including documented failures (spiral model)
Important:
There are no new hypotheses here (those belong in hypotheses) and no black-box optimization / no “fitting”.
Permitted are constraint-based derivations, consequence maps, scenario trees, and traceable transitions.
Layer ordering (canonical):
- legacy (inadmissibility)
- research-program (analytics)
- mms (dbms)
- matrix (artifacts)
- hypotheses (falsifiable)
- predictions (verifiable) ← this repository
Flow: Kernel → Hypotheses → Matrix → Predictions
Feedback: evaluation → (instantiation correction | hypothesis status change) → new run
→ Canonical governance: see docs/README.md (source: research-program)
- Each prediction must be traceable to at least one hypothesis
H###. - Each prediction must reference one or more runs:
RUN-YYYY-MM-###. - Manifest obligation per run: versions, inputs, outputs, validation status.
- Empirical failure is documented, not hidden (evaluations are artifacts).
- “Verifiable” means: operationally testable – not “proven true”.
predictions/
├── README.md
├── index.md
├── runs/
│ └── 2026-02-run-001/
│ ├── manifest.yaml
│ ├── inputs/
│ ├── outputs/
│ └── validation-report.md
├── projections/
├── evaluations/
├── tools/ ← optional, strictly separated from artifacts
└── schema/
CC BY-NC 4.0
Predictions operationalize hypotheses within admissible structure.
They do not generate claims. They expose consequences.
Outcomes may include:
- empirical support,
- empirical failure,
- instantiation refinement,
- STOP when evaluation cannot be meaningfully performed.
A prediction may:
- instantiate one or more hypotheses,
- generate runs and evaluations,
- trigger hypothesis revision,
- refine Matrix structure,
- or result in STOP when operational conditions collapse.
- Hypotheses → define claims being operationalized
- Matrix → provides admissible structural context
- MMS → governs admissible transitions and evaluation constraints
- Predictions → expose consequences and empirical interaction
- Legacy → preserves runs that cannot be interpreted
Empirical failure concerns outcome mismatch.
STOP concerns evaluation inadmissibility: the prediction cannot be meaningfully executed or interpreted under current constraints.
Both are recorded.
This repository is where the architecture encounters reality: runs, evaluations, failure, and operational limits.