fix flake in weighted random picker #1561
Merged
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.
This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.
Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.
Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.
Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.
Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.
You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.
Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.
This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.
Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.
Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.
Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.
Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
What type of PR is this?
/kind flake
What this PR does / why we need it:
Fix a test flake of random weighted picker.
This fix is based on expected probabilities with some tolerance to make sure the actual random sampling is close enough to the expected results. more on the numbers:
🔹 Setup
𝑋∼Binomial(𝑛,𝑝)
𝜎=sqrt(𝑝(1−𝑝)/𝑛)
🔹 Example: worst-case variance
The variance is largest at 𝑝=0.5
𝜎=sqrt(0.5⋅0.5/10000)≈0.005
So the natural “jitter” is about ±0.5 percentage points.
🔹 With tolerance = ±5% (0.05)
In normal distribution terms, that’s a 10σ bound.
The probability of going beyond 10σ is about 10^-23 — practically impossible in the lifetime of the universe.
Which issue(s) this PR fixes:
Fixes #1538
Does this PR introduce a user-facing change?: