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POST-COUP CONFLICT: BLOODSHED AND WARFARE

File Directory

  • assets
  • airstrike.R
  • analysis.R
  • preprocessing.R
  • visualization.R

Run the R script in following order. preprocessing.R > airstrike.R > analysis.R > visualization.R

You may need internet access to download the require libraries.

assets folder include all of the visualizations used in the paper and GitHub documentation.

Scripts

preprocessing.R - You need to have your own ACLED data on your machine and point the path in the script. snr.path is to normalize the sub-regions to states and regions.

airstrike.R - This script create multiple data frames to be used in further scripts. Only state and region based analysis are available in the paper, but this script includes nationwide analysis.

analysis.R - Analysis for total fatalities, Pyu Saw Htee associated events, military airstrikes on civilians and D-Day summary.

visualization.R - Process of creating all of the visualization in the paper.

Myanmar

About Myanmar

Myanmar is a country located in South East Asia. Hundreds of ethnic minorities living together with prolong conflicts under centralized legislature. Discrimination and oppression on minorities persist under every government including previous authoritarians, elected government (NLD) and current military (coup) junta.

Administrative geographical division of the 8 major ethnics divided into 7 states and 7 regions. Following is the table of state and regions. (Naypyitaw, an administrative division, is not in any of those region)

States and Regions
States Region
Kachin Ayeyarwady
Kayah Bago
Kayin Magway
Chin Mandalay
Mon Sagaing
Rakhine Taninthary
Shan Yangon

Boxplot

Boxplot explanation

Boxplot render the median, interquartile range, and the outliers of the data distribution.

  • Median is the middle point in the dataset
  • Interquartile range is the first quarter point and third quarter point in the dataset.
  • Outliers are the points deviated from most of the data in the dataset.

For example, comparing the distribution of Fatalities in armed clashes 7 days before airstrike and Fatalities in armed clashes in 7 days not in airstrike range in Sagaing region. Example In the boxplot, we can see that most of the fatalities in armed clashes 7 days before the airstrike is between about 75 fatalities and 130 fatalities. But most of the fatalities in armed clash 7 days not in the airstrike is between 0 and 30 fatalities. Meaning the higher the fatalities in armed clashes in 7 days, the more chance airstrike to come.

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POST-COUP CONFLICT: BLOODSHED AND WARFARE

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