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Cultured Meat Pivotal Questions Modeling

This repository contains modeling and analysis work for The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions project focused on cultured meat cost and feasibility research.

Purpose

  • Analyze and synthesize techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of cultured meat production
  • Develop cost models and parameter estimates
  • Interface with Metaculus forecasting questions
  • Support evaluator synthesis and research prioritization

Related Resources

Interactive Dashboard

Live: unjournal.github.io/cm_pq_modeling (coming soon)

An interactive Monte Carlo dashboard for exploring cultured meat production costs. Features:

  • Parameter sliders for key inputs (plant capacity, utilization, technology adoption)
  • Cost distribution visualization with percentile summaries
  • Cost breakdown charts showing component contributions
  • Tiered parameters: Basic controls + expandable advanced options

Run Locally

cd dashboard
quarto add quarto-ext/shinylive  # Install Shinylive extension
quarto preview                    # Live preview
quarto render                     # Build static site

Repository Structure

cm_pq_modeling/
├── dashboard/               # Interactive Quarto + Shinylive app
│   ├── index.qmd           # Main dashboard
│   ├── model.py            # Python cost model
│   └── _quarto.yml         # Quarto config
├── data/                    # Input data, CSVs, extracted parameters
├── models/                  # Cost models (Squiggle versions)
├── docs/                    # Working notes, evaluator guidance
└── .github/workflows/       # GitHub Actions for auto-deployment

Models

Python Cost Model (dashboard)

Location: dashboard/model.py

A "first-principles" Monte Carlo TEA model in Python, powering the interactive dashboard. Computes unit cost from:

  • Process intensities: Cell density, cycle time, media turnover
  • Variable costs: Media, micronutrients, recombinant factors
  • Capital costs: Reactor volume → CAPEX → annualized via CRF
  • Fixed OPEX: Scaled with plant size

Squiggle Cost Model (v0.2)

Location: models/cm_cost_v0.2.squiggle

A Monte Carlo cost model in Squiggle language with:

  • Explicit scale (plant capacity) and utilization parameters
  • Beta distributions for probabilities/shares (bounded 0-1)
  • Maturity factor to correlate technology adoption, costs, and financing
  • Scenario toggles: hydrolysates, food-grade micros, cheap recombinant factors

Live model: Squiggle Hub

Model Evaluation

See docs/Cultivated Meat Model Eval.md for detailed critique and improvement recommendations from David van der Linden and Jakub Kozlowski.

Sources

  • Risner et al. (2021) - UC Davis ACBM Calculator
  • CE Delft TEA studies
  • Humbird (2021) - Scale-up economics
  • Rethink Priorities forecasts

Status

🚧 Early development — Structure and scope being defined.