Cultured Meat Pivotal Questions Modeling

This repository contains modeling and analysis work for The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions project focused on cultured meat cost and feasibility research.

Purpose

• Analyze and synthesize techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of cultured meat production
• Develop cost models and parameter estimates
• Interface with Metaculus forecasting questions
• Support evaluator synthesis and research prioritization

Related Resources

• The Unjournal — Open evaluation of impactful research
• Pivotal Questions documentation — General PQ methodology
• Unjournal Dashboard — Evaluation metrics and data

Interactive Dashboard

Live: unjournal.github.io/cm_pq_modeling (coming soon)

An interactive Monte Carlo dashboard for exploring cultured meat production costs. Features:

• Parameter sliders for key inputs (plant capacity, utilization, technology adoption)
• Cost distribution visualization with percentile summaries
• Cost breakdown charts showing component contributions
• Tiered parameters: Basic controls + expandable advanced options

Run Locally

cd dashboard
quarto add quarto-ext/shinylive  # Install Shinylive extension
quarto preview                    # Live preview
quarto render                     # Build static site

Repository Structure

cm_pq_modeling/
├── dashboard/               # Interactive Quarto + Shinylive app
│   ├── index.qmd           # Main dashboard
│   ├── model.py            # Python cost model
│   └── _quarto.yml         # Quarto config
├── data/                    # Input data, CSVs, extracted parameters
├── models/                  # Cost models (Squiggle versions)
├── docs/                    # Working notes, evaluator guidance
└── .github/workflows/       # GitHub Actions for auto-deployment

Models

Python Cost Model (dashboard)

Location: dashboard/model.py

A "first-principles" Monte Carlo TEA model in Python, powering the interactive dashboard. Computes unit cost from:

• Process intensities: Cell density, cycle time, media turnover
• Variable costs: Media, micronutrients, recombinant factors
• Capital costs: Reactor volume → CAPEX → annualized via CRF
• Fixed OPEX: Scaled with plant size

Squiggle Cost Model (v0.2)

Location: models/cm_cost_v0.2.squiggle

A Monte Carlo cost model in Squiggle language with:

• Explicit scale (plant capacity) and utilization parameters
• Beta distributions for probabilities/shares (bounded 0-1)
• Maturity factor to correlate technology adoption, costs, and financing
• Scenario toggles: hydrolysates, food-grade micros, cheap recombinant factors

Live model: Squiggle Hub

Model Evaluation

See docs/Cultivated Meat Model Eval.md for detailed critique and improvement recommendations from David van der Linden and Jakub Kozlowski.

Sources

• Risner et al. (2021) - UC Davis ACBM Calculator
• CE Delft TEA studies
• Humbird (2021) - Scale-up economics
• Rethink Priorities forecasts

Status

🚧 Early development — Structure and scope being defined.