🏀 UVA Women’s Basketball: Path to the Final Four

This project builds a simple predictive model to estimate the probability of UVA Women’s Basketball reaching the Final Four.

📊 Model Approach

Using key performance metrics:

• Offensive rebound rate
• Defensive rebound rate
• Turnover rate
• Free throw percentage
• Field goal percentage

I created a weighted scoring system to estimate matchup win probabilities.

🔢 Method

• Calculated differences between UVA and opponent stats
• Applied weights to each feature
• Converted scores to probabilities using a logistic function
• Modeled sequential probabilities to estimate Final Four likelihood

📈 Results

• Sweet 16 vs TCU: ~19.7%
• Elite 8 vs South Carolina: ~13.9%
• Elite 8 vs Oklahoma: ~14.1%
• Final Four probability: ~2.8%

💡 Key Insight

While UVA has competitive metrics, the compounded difficulty of sequential matchups significantly reduces Final Four probability. I still will be cheering for them all the way, GO HOOS!

🛠️ Tools Used

• Python (pandas, numpy)
• Tableau (visualization)

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Built as part of my MSDS journey at UVA