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[ML] Stabilise Bayesian optimisation debug test#2983

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edsavage merged 1 commit intoelastic:mainfrom
edsavage:fix/debug-bayesian-optimisation-test
Mar 17, 2026
Merged

[ML] Stabilise Bayesian optimisation debug test#2983
edsavage merged 1 commit intoelastic:mainfrom
edsavage:fix/debug-bayesian-optimisation-test

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@edsavage
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@edsavage edsavage commented Mar 12, 2026

Summary

  • The testMaximumExpectedImprovement test was failing intermittently on Windows and macOS debug builds (see debug build #1217).
  • With 10 trials and a 0.7 win rate threshold, variance was too high for reliable results given only 15 BO iterations in debug mode.
  • Changed to 20 trials x 10 iterations (similar total runtime) with a 0.5 threshold, giving a more stable win rate estimate while still verifying that BO outperforms random search.

Test plan

  • Test passes locally in RelWithDebInfo
  • CI passes on all platforms
  • Debug nightly build passes after merge

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prodsecmachine commented Mar 12, 2026

Snyk checks have passed. No issues have been found so far.

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The testMaximumExpectedImprovement test was failing intermittently on
Windows and macOS debug builds. With only 10 trials and a 0.7 win rate
threshold, variance was too high for reliable results given the reduced
number of BO iterations in debug mode.

Use 20 trials with 10 iterations each (similar total runtime) and lower
the threshold to 0.5. This gives a more stable win rate estimate while
still verifying that BO outperforms random search.

Made-with: Cursor
@edsavage edsavage force-pushed the fix/debug-bayesian-optimisation-test branch from bb0dcee to 79ec1ba Compare March 13, 2026 02:35
@edsavage edsavage changed the title [ML] Relax Bayesian optimisation mean improvement threshold for debug builds [ML] Stabilise Bayesian optimisation debug test Mar 13, 2026
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@valeriy42 valeriy42 left a comment

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LGTM

@edsavage edsavage merged commit b29f459 into elastic:main Mar 17, 2026
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3 participants