Financial Time Series Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification

A comprehensive machine learning project for stock price prediction using LSTM, MC Dropout, Bayesian Neural Networks, and Transformers with probabilistic uncertainty estimation.

Author: Mohansree Vijayakumar
Email: mohansreesk14@gmail.com

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📋 Table of Contents

• Project Overview
• Quick Start
• Project Structure
• Model Architectures
• Technical Indicators
• Documentation
• Results
• Contributing
• License

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🎯 Project Overview

This project implements state-of-the-art deep learning models for financial time series forecasting with a focus on uncertainty quantification. The system provides not just point predictions, but confidence intervals that widen during volatile market periods, enabling better risk-aware trading decisions.

Key Features

• ✅ Multiple Model Architectures: LSTM, MC Dropout LSTM, Bayesian Neural Networks (Pyro), Transformers
• ✅ Uncertainty Quantification: Probabilistic forecasting with confidence intervals
• ✅ 21 Technical Indicators: Comprehensive feature engineering
• ✅ Hyperparameter Optimization: Optuna-based automated tuning
• ✅ Backtesting System: Strategy evaluation with uncertainty-aware position sizing
• ✅ Interactive Dashboard: Streamlit web application
• ✅ Professional Documentation: Detailed reports and visualizations

📁 Project Structure

ML-Intern/
├── app/                          # Streamlit web application
│   └── streamlit_app.py
├── configs/                      # Model and experiment configurations
│   ├── lstm_baseline.yaml
│   ├── mc_dropout.yaml
│   ├── bnn_vi.yaml
│   └── transformer_baseline.yaml
├── data/                         # Data storage (gitignored)
│   ├── raw/
│   └── processed/
├── reports/                      # Documentation and analysis
│   ├── figures/                  # Generated visualizations
│   ├── tables/                   # Reference tables
│   ├── PROJECT_ANALYSIS_REPORT.md
│   ├── QUICK_REFERENCE.md
│   ├── FIGURES_DOCUMENTATION.md
│   └── HPO_SEARCH_SPACE.md
├── results/                      # Experiment results (gitignored)
├── scripts/                      # Data preparation scripts
│   ├── fetch_data.py
│   └── make_dataset.py
├── src/                          # Source code
│   ├── data/                     # Data processing
│   │   ├── indicators.py
│   │   └── preprocess.py
│   ├── evaluation/               # Model evaluation
│   │   ├── backtesting.py
│   │   └── metrics.py
│   ├── models/                   # Model implementations
│   │   ├── lstm.py
│   │   ├── mc_dropout_lstm.py
│   │   ├── bnn_vi_pyro.py
│   │   └── transformer.py
│   ├── training/                 # Training pipeline
│   │   └── train_loop.py
│   └── utils/                    # Utilities
│       ├── config.py
│       ├── logging_mlflow.py
│       └── visualization.py
├── tests/                        # Unit tests
│   ├── test_metrics.py
│   ├── test_models.py
│   └── test_preprocess.py
├── utils/                        # Utility scripts
│   ├── generate_figures.py       # Generate documentation figures
│   ├── generate_hpo_table.py     # Generate HPO table image
│   └── generate_indicators_table.py  # Generate indicators table
├── train.py                      # Main training script
├── evaluate.py                   # Model evaluation script
├── backtest.py                   # Backtesting script
├── hparam_search.py             # Hyperparameter optimization
├── run_project.py               # Project launcher (tests + app)
├── requirements.txt             # Python dependencies
└── README.md                    # This file

🚀 Quick Start

Prerequisites

• Python 3.8+
• pip package manager

Installation

1. Clone or download this repository
2. Install dependencies:

pip install -r requirements.txt

Running the Project

Option 1: Run Everything (Tests + Web App)

python run_project.py

Option 2: Run Web Application Only

streamlit run app/streamlit_app.py

or

.\run_streamlit.bat  # Windows batch file
.\run_streamlit.ps1  # PowerShell script

Option 3: Access the Live Streamlit App Visit our hosted Streamlit app: https://bayesian-financial-forecasting.streamlit.app/

📊 Usage Examples

1. Train a Model

# LSTM Baseline
python train.py --config configs/lstm_baseline.yaml

# MC Dropout LSTM
python train.py --config configs/mc_dropout_lstm.yaml

# Bayesian Neural Network
python train_bnn.py --config configs/bnn_vi.yaml

# Transformer
python train.py --config configs/transformer_baseline.yaml

2. Hyperparameter Optimization

python hparam_search.py --config configs/lstm_baseline.yaml --study-name my_study

3. Evaluate Model

python evaluate.py --config configs/lstm_baseline.yaml --checkpoint results/experiment_XXXXX/best_model.pt

4. Run Backtesting

python backtest.py --config configs/mc_dropout.yaml --checkpoint results/experiment_XXXXX/best_model.pt

5. Generate Documentation Figures

# Generate all figures (6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
python utils/generate_figures.py

# Generate HPO table
python utils/generate_hpo_table.py

# Generate technical indicators table
python utils/generate_indicators_table.py

🏗️ Model Architectures

1. LSTM Baseline

• Standard LSTM for time series forecasting
• Dropout regularization
• Configuration: configs/lstm_baseline.yaml

2. MC Dropout LSTM

• Monte Carlo Dropout for uncertainty estimation
• Multiple forward passes at inference
• Provides prediction mean and variance
• Configuration: configs/mc_dropout_lstm.yaml

3. Bayesian Neural Network (Pyro)

• Full Bayesian treatment with Pyro
• Variational inference
• Posterior distribution over weights
• Configuration: configs/bnn_vi.yaml

4. Transformer

• Attention-based architecture
• Multi-head self-attention
• Positional encoding for sequences
• Configuration: configs/transformer_baseline.yaml

📈 Technical Indicators (21 Total)

The system uses 21 technical indicators across 6 categories:

• Price Features (5): Open, High, Low, Close, Adj Close
• Volume (1): Trading volume
• Returns (2): Daily return, Log return
• Trend (4): SMA(10), SMA(20), EMA(12), EMA(26)
• Momentum (6): RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, MACD Histogram, Stochastic %K, %D
• Volatility (3): Bollinger Bands (Upper, Middle, Lower)

See reports/tables/TECHNICAL_INDICATORS_TABLE.md for detailed formulas.

🔬 Hyperparameter Search Space

Optuna-based optimization with the following search space:

Parameter	Type	Range	Distribution
Hidden Size	Integer	64-256 (step 64)	Uniform
Num Layers	Integer	1-3	Uniform
Dropout	Float	0.0-0.4	Uniform
Learning Rate	Float	1e-4 to 5e-3	Log-Uniform
Batch Size	Categorical	[32, 64, 128]	Discrete

See reports/HPO_SEARCH_SPACE.md for complete details.

📊 Key Results

Performance Highlights

• Validation Loss: ~0.009 MSE (LSTM Baseline)
• Uncertainty Calibration: Bands widen 1.48x during COVID-19 crash
• Risk-Adjusted Returns:
  • Uncertainty-aware strategy: 22.7% lower volatility
  • 22.4% smaller maximum drawdown
  • Sharpe ratio improvement: 0.88 vs 0.78

Visualizations

All figures available in reports/figures/:

• Figure 6: AAPL Price History (2015-2024)
• Figure 7: Feature Correlation Heatmap
• Figure 8: Training/Validation Loss Curves
• Figure 9: Uncertainty Bands (COVID-19 volatility demonstration)
• Figure 10: Cumulative Returns Comparison

📚 Documentation

Comprehensive Reports

• PROJECT_ANALYSIS_REPORT.md: Complete project analysis
• FIGURES_DOCUMENTATION.md: Detailed figure documentation
• HPO_SEARCH_SPACE.md: Hyperparameter optimization details
• TECHNICAL_INDICATORS_TABLE.md: All 21 indicators with formulas

Quick References

• QUICK_REFERENCE.md: At-a-glance project guide
• HPO_QUICK_REFERENCE.md: HPO quick guide

🧪 Testing

Run unit tests:

# All tests
python -m pytest tests/

# Specific test file
python -m pytest tests/test_models.py

# With coverage
python -m pytest tests/ --cov=src

Or use the project launcher:

python run_project.py  # Runs tests first, then launches app

🛠️ Configuration

All experiments use YAML configuration files in configs/:

# Example: configs/lstm_baseline.yaml
data:
  tickers: ["AAPL"]
  data_dir: "data/processed"
  train_ratio: 0.7
  valid_ratio: 0.15

model:
  type: "lstm"
  hidden_size: 128
  num_layers: 2
  dropout: 0.1

training:
  epochs: 50
  batch_size: 64
  learning_rate: 0.001
  early_stopping_patience: 10

seed: 42

📦 Dependencies

Core libraries:

• PyTorch: Deep learning framework
• Pandas/NumPy: Data manipulation
• yfinance: Financial data fetching
• Streamlit: Web dashboard
• Optuna: Hyperparameter optimization
• Pyro: Bayesian deep learning
• Matplotlib/Seaborn: Visualization
• MLflow: Experiment tracking (optional)

See requirements.txt for complete list.

🎯 Key Innovations

1. Uncertainty Quantification: Not just predictions, but confidence intervals
2. Volatility-Aware Trading: Dynamic position sizing based on uncertainty
3. Comprehensive Technical Analysis: 21 engineered features
4. Multiple Architectures: Compare LSTM, Bayesian, Transformer approaches
5. Professional Documentation: Publication-ready reports and figures

📝 Citation

If you use this project in your research or work, please cite:

Financial Time Series Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification
ML Internship Project, 2025
GitHub: [Your Repository URL]

🤝 Contributing

This is an educational project. Suggestions and improvements are welcome!

📄 License

This project is for educational and research purposes.

🙏 Acknowledgments

• Data Source: Yahoo Finance (yfinance library)
• Frameworks: PyTorch, Pyro, Streamlit, Optuna
• Inspiration: Modern deep learning research in finance and uncertainty quantification

📞 Contact

For questions or collaboration opportunities, please reach out via GitHub issues.

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Last Updated: October 14, 2025
Version: 1.0
Status: Production-Ready ✅